Replies to post #216870 on Biotech Values

[vinmantoo]

• ABBV’s 2018 HCV sales guidance (almost 100% Mavyret) =$2.5B, an increase relative to the $2.04B annualized run rate in 4Q17. (The $2.5B figure may be a deliberate lowball insofar as ABBV was badly burned by overestimating Viekira sales in prior years.)

That sounds like you are willing to wait until at least the end of Q1 for Mavyret sales figures to come in before considering selling off some ENTA. The ENTA stock price has been going up so rapidly that my itch to sell is becoming stronger.

[guyschmid]

Credit Suisse in one analyst report said the Mayveret gains were predominantly at the cost of Merck - does this tally with the call / anyone else's notes? thanks

[DewDiligence]

Re: ABBV/ENTA US HCV scripts/week ending 1/26/18 (IMS)

ABBV/ENTA’s new-patient share (NRx) reached 35.6%, the highest-ever level reported by IMS. (Almost all of ABBV/ENTA’s US patient share is now coming from Mavyret.) ABBV/ENTA’s total-patient share (TRx) reached 29.3%.

The actual Mavyret figures reported by IMS for the week ending 1/26/18 are:

NRx 951 (+21% vs prior week)
TRx 1607 (+17% vs prior week)

[DewDiligence]

(ENTA)—ABBV reports $919M of 1Q18 HCV sales—($343M US; $576M ex-US):

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/abbvie-reports-first-quarter-2018-114700801.html

Clearly, ABBV’s prior 2018 full-year HCV sales guidance of $2.5B was a lowball figure, as mentioned in the second bullet point in #msg-138017796.