Replies to post #138893 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[exwannabe]

Lumping NWBO 331 patients together in DCVax-L trial. All patients received SOC and or DCVax-L. 331 in trial with 2 year survival 90 patients = 27.19%. American Brian Tumor Association has 2 year survival rate of 30% for gpm patients.Not seeing any gains here. Comments anyone?

Your math is flawed. You can not compute MOS (or 2 year) by looking at the number alive..
A reasonable estimate for this trial is that the blended median is up over 20 months. The 2 year OS (still blended) is probably around 40-45% (I do not have my model around where I can check this, but should be about right for it).

So yes, that would be a gain. And one might reasonably presume "everybody is living longer".

But what that means is a far more difficult question, and one that will get us nowhere,

[Extremist223]

Firstly, you don't know where those 90 patients came from in the enrollment ramp. Secondly, even if they all came from the end that would mean the 30% of everyone who is supposed to make it to 2 years was all clustered together. What are the chances that instead of it being 1 in every 3 making it to two years, none of the first 200 did, but it was all 100 right at the end?

Seems to me that if it all isn't illegal wash trading, then someone big is taking the other side of these trades to accumulate.

[biosectinvestor]

Incorrect.

331 but 110 approx were initially placebo.

90/220 = 41% approximately.

Not sure where you're getting 90.

Now if some of good part of those were placebo crossover, that complicates OS maybe, but still looks pretty nice.

[Virgilio]

All patients received SOC and or DCVax-L. 331 in trial with 2 year survival 90 patients = 27.19%

Those 331 patients do not start treatment at the same time...