Replies to post #295706 on Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[swg_tdr]

1. EXOSOME $67 BILLION SALES WORLDWIDE (END-POINT PRICING)
Exosome BINARY blood test Base market parameters, Early detection annual & survivor monitor

Population size/geographical/market characteristics:

USA 324.3millon (current estimate; and 281.4m, Yr 2000 census)

stratified ages 35 to 64 years 197.1m (2016 estimate) is the key sector, at 33%, BASE 65.0m

age 65 to 74, 18.4m, assume 50% not able or too poor, BASE 9.2 m (Medicare paid)

cancer patient families @ 3.4m (1.7m new cases, 0.6m deaths/yr), EARLY BASE 3.4million tests
"add -- follow-up if stable or progression" annual check-up of survivors @ 1.1m
cancer survivors 1.1 per year times 8 (?), BASE 8.8m (with 3 tests per year, 26m equiv?)
cancer stats per American Cancer Society, 2017, note-- four major cancers only

"early trendsetters" IF adequately promoted by partner
corporate "key management medicals", mandatory, introductory target 2.0million (assumed)
entertainment sector, entrepreneurs, professional groups, alumni groups, introductory 15.0m (guess)

E U Europe Population (including 64million of UK)
508million; ages 35 to 74 at 228million (appx), at 80% compliant, TARGET 182million tests

cancer patient families (3.7m new cases, 1.9m deaths/yr), BASE 7.4million tests
per statistica, statistics portal, 2016
cancer survivors 1.8m per year, times 8 (?), BASE 14.4m (with 3 tests per year, 43m equiv?)

JAPAN
127million, ages 35 to 74 at 89m (?), and at 90%, TARGET 80million

AUSTRALIA, S. KOREA, CANADA
at 23, 50 and 35million respectively, total 108million, ball park TARGET 65million

TOTAL ANNUAL TESTS WORLDWIDE 448 MILLION, AT $150 PER, OR $67.2BILLION
FOR EARLY DETECTION AND SURVIVOR MONITORING
THE EARLY BASE IN THE USA (trendsetters and cancer families) $3.1 BILLION PER YEAR

next
How much of this $67Billion annual ultimate potential will revert to Peregrine? and it will not be astronomical even in this "first in market coupe" preventive early detection and post-treatment monitoring sector

How might a break-down of a NSCLC patient billings inform us of the current billings for tests in NSCLC sector? And hence, what are the types of diagnostics in the USA Oncology market that could add up to $20billion now and can Exosome displace much, or only supplement within this $107billion total cancer treatment billed maket (no way $200B here)

Best,
N

PS So Peregrine management, peel this market by geography and do the first deal already -- auction by geographic areas, to cut the consumer deal part for preventive early detection now.

[Protector]

swg_trd, the pro-active market (that doesn't really exist today in the extend that PPHM's Exosome test makes it possible) with its SIMPLE binary outcome CANCR/NO CANCER is what will constitute the BULK of that 100-200BIL$.

It will probably save 1 Trillion Dollar in treatment because it will make early detection the rule rather then the exception for ALL SOLID CANCERS.

100-200BIL$ markets in Diagnostics is NOTHING if you save more on treatment (and you must see the FULL COST, not only the drugs but the complete economical cost due to how things work today).

A smear is probably the closest in comparison. An intestinal cancer scan or any type that requires a biopsy, believe me cost much more then just the biopsy. The price of the Exosome blood test will be set accordingly.

A yearly dental control costs 50,- Euro over here. Soc. Sec pays about 45,- Euro of that. So I think a yearly cancer Exosome test is certainly a big possibility.

GREAT D&D Job in all cases because this was not an easy and fast exercise you did there. Thanks.

BTW these tests will probably come at different prices depending on whether you just want a binary YES/NO, and identifications Liver, Lung, etc, a stage, benign or not etc.

Digital Imaging becomes MUCH cheaper if you can TARGET the right organ that has cancer rather then need a body/partial body scan because the patients feels something but doesn't exactly know where.

Follow-up and the ability to possibly regulate dosages is another killer. Just saving 3% of a cancer treatment due to reduced need of the main drug combo would pay for that persons Exosome tests for the rest of his live (exaggeration depending on what the test will cost).