Replies to post #295723 on Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[swg_tdr]

CP, we now are on the same page

swg_trd, the pro-active market (that doesn't really exist today in the extend that PPHM's Exosome test makes it possible) with its SIMPLE binary outcome CANCR/NO CANCER is what will constitute the BULK of that 100-200BIL$

.

EXACTLY

so I re-defined yours under my 0.1 EXOSOME

"However, conceptionally we did not specify that this Exosome breakthrough creates a brand-new (in-GP office) consumer market that in dollars may far exceed the traditional in- hospital /oncologist /radiology lab $20billion (?) diagnostics, which sure as death and taxes you cannot pump to $200billion – that has been my point of contention."

it all depends on who bills ;-)

and reality check, there is not and never will be a trillion dollar cancer treatment market, worldwide, ever.

more tomorrow and thanks for the comment

[swg_tdr]

Exosome- Fly in this Ointment & CP 's being "too optimistic" as to quick and easy test in the GP (USA) officce:

1. most nurses in GP offices cannot draw blood as they are not licensed to do so (and would need practical experience to make such painless -- until every one demands an Exosome test in their annual check-up. ;-)
2. more significant, GPs would likely refer such patients to a testing lab.
3. non-cancer procedures and tests in a hospital are specific to a patient's medical problems -- and emotional burden --, and it appears highly unlikely that doctors would want to burdent nursing staff and lab tests with a novel and to their treatment unrelated item, not to mention breaking cancer news to them (interviewed, leave this to the specialists, not my concern).

Hence, the 30% USA market penetration under 1.EXOSOME ANALYSIS likely is overstated, unless costly consumer marketing provides a "pull through" from patients demanding a test at the MD's office or they go directly to a testing lab (not insurance covered unless MD referred)

Further, the reputation of a Distributor likely does not influence the MD's view on early cancer detection per se, as limited talks with doctors appear to indicate.

Finally, DNA tests from an established customer base may crunch the initial Exosome USA market entry, noting that for us, method only is patented, not the naturally occuring Exosome aberations indicating cancer -- other detection methods can prevail. If those test equipment marketers enter the DNA testing lab environment early, and any higher prices there would work in favor of their entry. (bigger profits).

An interesting parallel news item on how markets are hard to penetrate without a superior approach

NYT on Alzheimer 5/16/17
The tests are simple: All people have to do is send away a saliva sample and pay $199. Their disease risks, if they say they want to know them, will be delivered with a report on ancestry and on how their genes influence such traits as flushing when they drink alcohol or having straight hair.
The company will not reveal how many people have received disease-risk data, but it says that in Britain and Canada, where it has offered such testing for several years, about three-quarters of their customers have asked for it. 23andMe has sold its genetic services to more than two million people worldwide since 2007.
IMO, that looks like chicken feed, not a billion dollar test market for Alzheimer – said to be more feared than cancer.

The issue for now is with long-term care insurance, not employment and not — at least so far — health insurance.
Under the Genetic Information Nondiscrimination Act, companies cannot ask employees to take gene tests and cannot use any such results in employment decisions; insurers are not permitted to require gene tests or to use the results in coverage decisions.
But legislation proposed in the House would exempt corporate “wellness” programs from some of these requirements. And the American Health Care Act, passed by the House, would permit states to waive some insurance safeguards regarding pre-existing conditions.
CUT..
For 23andMe, the new tests are simply a way to help people learn about their makeup. “People clearly want information about themselves,” said Anne Wojcicki, the chief executive at 23andMe. “There is a demand.”
CUT ...
The ApoE4 gene variant is present in about a quarter of the population.

As to CP, no proof on numbers so far .... and counting

the pro-active market (that doesn't really exist today in the extend that PPHM's Exosome test makes it possible) with its SIMPLE binary outcome CANCR/NO CANCER is what will constitute the BULK of that 100-200BIL$.

It will probably save 1 Trillion Dollar in treatment (??) because it will make early detection the rule rather then the exception for ALL SOLID CANCERS.

100-200BIL$ markets in Diagnostics is NOTHING

the total cancer treatment costs, UK, or USA, or worldwide are what?

best,
N