No you are wrong. In his article on Feb 27th Smith said "This is truly an asymmetric investment opportunity as the upside in the chance of success could produce a $750 million to $1.5 billion market valuation based on looking at the market capitalizations of companies with successful phase 3 trials of cancer drugs addressing comparable cancer opportunities."
Now please run your calcs again based on that market cap. Also, go ahead and use 500,000,000 as the OS as I think that will be closer to reality at that time. Would your cost basis still be in the red? I suspect so, as would all long time shareholders. Yay us! That's best case scenario!