Replies to post #293063 on Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[shipbuilder]

First thought on reading swg_trd's analysis: the simple, fast and inexpensive blood test for pre-symptom, tissue specific detection will be part of all our annual physical exams.

"I went in for an allergy screening, so I checked my HIV status and did the cancer screening too."

If the PS expressing exosomes test(s) can detect pres-symptom stage one cancers, won't those tests become as common as having your blood sugar levels checked?

[spankyvol]

Pper will talk and waste time.

Do a couple of studies. Will want too much money if anyone is even interested in PPER tech.

Someone else will discover how to do it in the meantime. That company will be bought by a BP.

But BOD will get paid each year so no biggie to them.

If it weren't for those pesky quarterly CCs and annual meetings they would really really would have it made.

Save us RONIN.

[swg_tdr]

CP. we both say DISRUPTIVE, so a $5 SP? Yep, $5 now, see below

However, in the context of your first write-up, the quote of 100 to 200$ billion testing business, could have been misconstrued as applying to cancer related tests, my bad.

but my point was No Way, as the part cannot be as big, or a huge sector of, the whole $107billion total US cancer treatment costs.

As we have "simple and quick" test routines with exosome, the cost should be relatively low and that points to a relatively low pricing -- never mind the benefit. Also such pricing and our straight forward applications would point to a rapid market penetration in the cancer treatment sector. Say exosomes USA at $4B?

As to annual routine tests, I mentioned my take for the USA in responding to shipbuilder.

Now, Peregrine should announce seeking a spin-off into a joint venture for the exosome test business, with an IPO (10% of shares) and stock for PPHM holders and the joint venturer. Just announcing an IB name for the partner search and deal structuring, would put our PPS way above $1 instantly.

best,
N

[swg_tdr]

CP, the Exosome landscape is still too fuzzy for me,

so let's quarter this pig and get some valuation going, eh?

Oh, and welcome back here from your Easter break and chasing the bunnies
;-)

best,
N

PS I suspect Ronin did some Exosome scoping, and the real (prospective) numbers are getting quite interesting

[swg_tdr]

0.1 EXOSOME DESCRIPTIVE BASELINE

For Patent and Proof of Concept Test, see  post 285520 (sticky)

CP, you and Hutschi did a a great job in sketching the cancer diagnostics tests landscape. :-)

However, conceptionally we did not specify that this Exosome breakthrough creates a brand-new (in-GP office) consumer market that in dollars may far exceed the traditional in- hospital /oncologist /radiology lab $20billion (?) diagnostics, which sure as death and taxes you cannot pump to $200billion – that has been my point of contention.

Now to the Base Reference points we agree on, before any peel-back numbers I intend to post next -- YOUR DEFINITIONS

BINARY testing cancer-free "Yes or No"
without being cancer specific and to be a PRO-ACTIVE test (for instance done during your annual) that makes it IMMEDIATELY deployable as a cheap pre-selection diagnostic tool before engaging in more expensive searches, and (my add, can lead to unprecedented earliest detection of any solid cancers and may determine the stage, that is degree of progress in the cancer)

comment: this is a consumer marketing sector that can reach tens of billions of dollars, depending on pricing and hence market penetration, it should be low-cost in the USA (forget about insurance in the initial marketing)

Companion test, as required, can cheaply establish TYPE OF CANCER, if a "Yes"

my impression is that this always should be a separate test kit (same time, same office), as we absolutely need the flexibility of separate (high) pricing, noting a "yes" will be a 454.8 in 100,000 avg occurance stat – and of course there are more detailed stats, that are age-bracket and type of cancer incidence-related, but such is here irrelevant – so this will be a rounded 0.5%-plus ratio "Yes" outcome from from the Binary.

comments:
Here the pricing can be high, say 50 times the Binary price point, as the procedure is a pull-through from the Binary, and in hospital settings for years to come it will be THE supplementary before the traditional biopsy. A complete "marketing package of easy, quick results", with the TYPE test priced at say $7,500 as an extreme.

But forever, the cancer mass will be measured by scanning, unless you catch it at such a very early stage and have non-surgical treatment with highly predictable outcomes, IMO.

Basic assumptions/facts:
We can say that this test has 100% accuracy on the Binary (cancer/no cancer) and near 100% accuracy on the Type detection.

YES. That's the ad pitch, making it HUGE.

And we are ... (in need of) a partner involved in diagnostics... such as JNJ/Janssens Diagnostics, Roche Diagnostics, AstraZeneca Diagnostics, etc).

My prediction, with the right partner, it will surpass Bavi valuation.

best,
N