I think over the next 2 weeks we will have a resolution of the Nasdaq issue. The question will be if there is some kind a share buyback. If that is even possible, I don't know. There will need to be a financing. If they give news or not, they need money. A debt financing I believe is a possibility and would be the best case scenario in my opinion. It would be a big hint that there is really good news coming. With a debt financing that is a huge risk on the side of the lender. Let's say he gives up 5 million. If that person loses that 5 million because the company fails he would have to make back 2x that back in some other way to get the 5 million back(make 9-10 million somewhere else and after taxes get 5 million). So for someone to give 5 million to this company that is a strong hint things are good. You would hope if that happens that bears would finally get the hint. I then believe after the financing they will give news that the trial endpoint has been met, data is being scrubbed, they will give some information like enrollment numbers, and give a date when to expect top line data. I cannot imagine that it would give the top line data much more than a month after announcement endpoint has been met(for my sake I hope a few days before January calls expire). I think the combination of a very favorable financing and a phase 3 announcement like I have stated could get this stock price in at least the 3-5 dollar range. If they gave this kind of news(if, if, if) that is a very powerful statement of trial success in my opinion. Of course there is the possibility of a rolling review and the data being scrubbed along the way and top line results sooner. I am just not getting that feeling from management though there is some evidence that could be happening. Once they do announce top line data I think the roof will blow off of the stock and we could get into the teens easily. What I am saying is based of a lot of discussions with contacts and management over time. Some will chose to believe that I am sincere and some won't. Not to long ago I was certain we would have top line results by early December because of the listing issue with Nasdaq. My hopes for that scenario are dying with time. My hopes of a share price above 10 dollars by mid January are dying as well. I do think it would be in the best interest of the company to make that happen(not just for me). I say this because I think it will take a lot of shares out of the hands of negative forces and into the hands of longs. As hard as it is for me to say that my hope for that is weakening daily. I have not totally lost it though.
It has been the goal of the company to get direct phase 2 studies started by the new year as well according to management. That would be another boost to the share price I think but as well my hopes for that are dying daily.
Any opinions on what I am saying are welcome. It is all my opinion based on as I said before a lot of discussion with others, some in management.
I will also say that the company is keeping things very close to the chest. Like I said, I talk with a lot of people and those people as well as myself frequently talk with management. Not one person had any clue that the German trial was even on the table. So they may be even hiding everything from us as to be absolutely sure nothing leaks out. I would be totally cool with that and love to be totally surprised here in the next few weeks. I do though have an absolute certainty that some major announcements are coming within the first 10 days of December.
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