Replies to post #89498 on Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[marzan]

Kiwi, when you bring up this low LDL question in the RIt popultion as opposed to that of Jelis, why you always forget to remember that the composite rate 4.84 is consistently being met here such that the management keeps telling us the event rates are tracking to their initial estimations. Because of low LDL in both the arms, you suspect would cause low number of events, then how will this composite rate of 4.84 has been possible or how the company can tell us the events are tracking. Since you are long now, don't you agree that low LDL doesn't always mean lower cvd rates or it doesn't reduce rates linearly as you expect. Don't you think there could be something else causing the rate to be around 4.84 and that could come from low EPA levels in the P arm? These are times now as you know the industry is trying to figure out how low of LDL is low enough. After they bring it down to 70s it doesn't do any more good rather cause all kinds of health problems particularly in the elderly people. And this is causing that ESPR tanking and that AMGN's injectable drug not doing well. Please put this issue to rest as it doesn't make sense at all .

[chas1232123]

Kiwi - This has been covered before here, and we'll likely have to agree to disagree, but as JL has pointed out, the JELIS subjects had low risk despite having high LDL-C, which bolsters the argument for a secondary role for LDL. To the extent lowering LDL decreases risk, that will happen in both RI arms and I don't see how that hurts us. The RI designers would have accounted for that when computing their 5.9% estimate.

I'm not saying I know for sure what will happen, I do not, but I've taken a pretty hard informed look, especially at the parts where my expertise can be applied, and a lot of expertise on this board thinks things look very promising. I'm keeping in mind nothing is ever certain. Everyone should. Glad you're long now.