Replies to post #89481 on Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[rafunrafun]

Very well put together... so if you believe that the P rate was always at 5.9% or higher and averaged lays say at 6.1%, then RRR is over 40%.

I agree.

[Whalatane]

Chas Interesting presentation thx

I would challenge the following

The second concern stems from the lower statin dose for JELIS. Following JL’s point that much of the statin benefit derives from its anti-inflammatory properties (see JUPITER), one could argue that the additional statin in both arms of RI could mitigate some of the inflammation, leaving less for V to mitigate and reducing RRR for RI due to diminishing returns of anti-inflammatory action. This concern is reduced for me by the fact that JELIS showed that raising even an already quite high EPA level has substantial benefits that persist across subgroups

my comment re " This concern is reduced for me etc "
They were on simavastatin in JELIS . Many /most will be on generic Lipitor and maybe some on Crestor in R-IT .... both are stronger Statins then Sima and the patients are probably on higher doses......enough to get their mean LDL probably closer to 90 ....ie half that of the mean LDL levels in the JELIS secondary subgroup.

So while I agree that raising already high EPA levels has substantial benefits .....in JELIS 2ndry its against low dose Simavastatin with an LDL mean of 178 ......not against stronger Statins with a mean LDL closer to 90.
I don't think you extrapolate benefit to the degree you do .


JMO ...always interesting to read your posts
Kiwi

[me33]

Chas,
Good analysis. I have only one thing to add. The upcoming Interim will be analysing not 60 closer to 70% of total events.
This should work in our favor.

[HDGabor]

c-

👍

Best,
G

[yellow_bluff]

When Medivation announced very positive results for its pivotal P3 in late stage prostate cancer the stock rose from about $8 to $16 (pre split). the stock shared some similarity w amrn as it had been a big dissapointment about three years prior. steadily wall street returned to mdvn and the stock eventually went to $120 pre split.

so, i think that it will take a while for amrn to fully rise on positive reduce it results.

[heysfguy]

Chas - I like your thinking and analysis - being a long, of course, I would!

In response to your thoughts about trajectory of PPS over the coming weeks and possibly months, I don't expect any really big jumps. But I do expect steady price appreciation, decrease in shorts, growing institutional accumulation.

I expect PPS will raise incrementally through much of September in expectation of DMC recommendations. In the meantime, the PPS could additionally benefit from additional bullish indicators, emanating from various sources: FDA, AMRN or even other published research (continued thanks to Zum on that topic).

But I don't expect any big gaps to appear until DMC recommendations are communicated. Barring any global headwinds, or an early announcement, I think the PPS will be about $3.40 by end of month, climbing at a slightly steeper trajectory each week into September until we get an announcement.

[zumantu]

Chas, one factor that gets glossed over, but that I see repeatedly described and illustrated in Amarin patent applications is the synergistic effect of Statin on EPA's antioxidant power. In fact they mention this in the investor presentation . In patents it's illustrated as greater reduction of Hydroperoxides by the combination of EPA and Statin vs either alone.
So on my mind, there is a therapeutic effect not yet accounted for in our analysis that comes from higher Statin dose in which the power of EPA is increased, and thus giving the treatment arm a boost - a boost in addition to what we think of as plasma EPA levels

I can't predict the affect, but literature suggests it indeed exists

[jessellivermore]

chas123...

Excellent post I agree with almost everything you say except two points...

The first is I believe the effects of EPA to repair the damage to the cardio-vascular elements caused by CVD are accomplished over short periods of time..Some like the effect on platelet aggregation are almost instantaneous , even the re arrangement of unstable plaques into stable plaques takes weeks and not years..EPA can not correct all forms of damage including dysfunctional valves, or dysfunctional left ventricles..EPA probably can and does decrease the extent of ischemic damage in the heart or in the brain. EPA can also probably head off events..by moderating inflammation (same as aspirin) but these effects are present shortly after taking the medication.

The second is the statin issue. The first case being JELIS where the LDL-Cs were relatively high, (>150mg/dl) and the statin doses were low..The JELIS skeptics point to this observation and say.."You could have similar risk reductions if you increased the statin doses". Well that is one way to look at it, but that is ignoring the fact these Japanese patients with their higher EPA blood levels had lower pre-trial CVD risk and lower risk in the P arm on these low doses of statins and higher LDL-C levels, than westerners matched for age and gender, who were fully statinized and had lower LDL-C levels than the Japs. The lower CVD risk was clearly due to the higher EPA levels and were low despite higher LDL-C levels..In R-I we see high CVD risk in patients taking high doses of statins despite the LDL-Cs which are under 100 mg?dl..The problem is they do not have the high EPA levels of the Japanese..

So I ask all of you If you can have low risk of CVD with high LDL-C and low statin doses, if your EPA levels are high...And you could have can be at high risk with low LDL-C and high statin doses if your EPA are low..If you could only chose one which would rather have high EPA levels...or Low LDL-C/high statin levels

":>) JL

[hayward]

Chas123212

Is the data lock something that has to be or will be PRd by the company TIA

Michael