Raf - Thanks. I'm not saying P couldn't have started out a bit under 5.9, but probably not much, and it has increased since and will continue to increase if RI continues. One of my main results was because enrollment criteria were adjusted in May 2013 does not mean initial P was below its expected value, although at the time it briefly looked like it might be. I do agree that the effective P now is very likely at least 5.9%, and very possibly substantially higher. Hard to be precise about that, and management doesn't know either, hence their prudent under-promising re IA IMO.
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