Replies to post #608 on Alon USA Partners, LP (ALDW)

[jugs]

Pete,

You've just added fine color analysis to the board discussion.

I'm so glad to see you adding units here. $9.70 is an outrageously low price to pay for something we're convinced is set to go higher, much higher at that. Really, I was asking myself what factors might be contributing to ALDW's floundering in the low-$10 or below range lately and I'm reminded that it wasn't even approaching $10 until very recently. You added today at $9.70. I did the same at $9.85, not being available to monitor things due to my being tied up teaching.

Each of us who are adding units are victims of two or three forces in play right now...............yet we also benefit, strangely. A repressive market sinks all ships regardless of seaworthiness. Brexit has a lot of people running scared. If Britain remains as is widely expected, then I think we'll see a brief but dramatic market correction to the high side.

Does any of this have anything to do with oil processed, transported or stored in this country? No, of course not! But there's a sense of the global stage being in control and many, many investors are loathe to trust their instincts and intellectual capability. So they look to the media for support.

Once we (the market as a whole) get past Brexit, I predict we of the ALDW camp will find ourselves beginning to move higher. When the next distribution is announced, units will probably move a good deal higher. This will happen as investors acknowledge that if ALDW is paying 25 cents for a quarter, then---annualized---it translates into a yield of better than 10% based on a $10 valuation. However---if ALDW pays 25 cents for the current quarter, then it's obvious that Q3 will pasy at least $1.35. Combine both of those possible payouts and the math reveals a yield greater than 16%. This alone will drive units much higher.

And this, plus the fact that all of the excitement is likely to transpire over the next half year and not require more time than that---and we have a recipe for stunning success. And this is what has pushed me to accumulate a sizable position. And you're doing the same thing.

Ya gotta love it!