Replies to post #58967 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[shish_21]

As a semi-pro poker player you should be very familiar with probability and risk/reward then. If you see Dvax-L as a 99% chance of failure then so be it. You did your DD and at least you're admitting finally that you're short. However, I think I speak for most of us here and we see a ~50% success rate, with a current share price showing extreme value/upside upon approval. That is not gambling, that is investing.

[CherryTree1]

So I've decided to put my money where my mouth is and go short. Not a very large amount of my NPV, but you know--enough to beat a table full of stuck players, that's for sure ;)

The fundamentals and risks here are just really horrible. The latest UCLA thing tells me something bad too. But I won't get into all that. You all see it as bullish. Okay.

Let's see what happens. It's been my experience that those who are stuck and really FEEL IT will never capitulate until they've lost it all.

Perhaps you can comment on this in light of your other predictions back in December (e.g. your first pick CMRX was around $35 in December, closed yesterday at $5.67!)

Pyrrhonian Sunday, 12/27/15 07:36:33 PM Post # 48689
In contrast with NWBO's dismal prospects, I much prefer CMRX, ACHN, and RUSL. They're my biggies. Trading around AEZS (de risk before topline), like CYTR (not too heavy, but liking their chances of hitting SS PFS, which in 2nd like sarcoma with no real SOC is totally acceptable--unlike in NWBO's trial--will derisk somewhat before topline too), like ARGS, mostly for trading and to hold through data read out of their up and coming small studies, in particular combining AGS-003 with anti PD1. Another de risk before topline play, but that'll be a while. Bit concerned about up coming dilution but the huge sell off provided too juicy an opportunity. CLBS I'm long, after I got stopped out a bunch of times, so far sporting about a 25% loss, but given my weird history with that co it should be much worse. Stopped out of ARGS once too but held off until recently. Up a little there.

Was long YANG for a while. Not shorting anything else at the mom. Will short GILD at some point. Also plan to short LNKD again at some point.

Had to mention NWBO in this post otherwise off topic. Not trying to bash every chance I get ;)

Man am I being nice here.

[Jack2479]

Gambling and NWBO

I thought you advocated the Pure Bluff?

[chinatown1980]

How does one achieve the status of a semi pro? I have played poker at some clubs, and even at a casino. Wow, cool, one more thing I can put in my resume. I'm also a semi pro golfer, semi pro tennis player, semi pro bass fisherman, and the list goes on. Nice!!

[longfellow95]

Seems a very strange strategy to short NWBO, when it is already at a bargain basement price. Why didn't you short it any time second half of 2015? You would be comfortably ahead...
Still, with your record of getting things wrong, not surprising really.
I hope you realise the risks of shorting this stock.

Holding any position in NWBO is a bit of a punt. It's like backing a 33/1 shot on the horses. But, if you think its true odds should be 20/1, then it represents a value proposition. Small stakes wager, so limited downside, but with a real prospect of scooting home. What's not to like?

To use more betting parlance; I'd rather be a backer than a layer!

I pretty well disregard precedents such as previous under-enrolled trial outcomes, because NWBO is unprecedented.

And I like having a ticket to this suspense drama however the final scene turns out!