NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[Pyrrhonian]

Gambling and NWBO.

Have any of you guys gambled before? Know what the term "stuck" means?

I played poker as a semi pro for a few years. Evenings during the week at some local non descript clubs. And an occasional jaunt to a casino, especially during larger tournaments (I only played cash games, but people would "bust out" of the tourneys and be "steaming" talking about some bad beat they took and would sit at my table and give me and others their money. Emotions!). Anyway, there is a phenomenon called "being stuck." There are others too such as running hot and not being able to walk away.

When someone's running hot and "doesn't know when to quit," they imagine and delude themselves into believing their luck will go on forever. They experience a bit of the immortal syndrome teenagers do. It just goes to their head. I would just wait for guys like that to sit at my table and get all fat on chips through sloppy, horrible play (calling with gut shots and hitting them, etc), and then try my best to time the ultimate hand and get all their chips. I even got a nick name because it worked so well. It was all based on psychology and nothing really complex at all. I was the objective, emotionless decision maker. They were completely emotional, and didn't understand the game and the odds well at all.

Enter parallels with NWBO and I'm sorry to say, most of you. When a player would run hot and get that immortal syndrome they'd of course eventually start losing. Say they quadrupled their initial buy in. Not bad. Well unfortunately for them they would get fixated on that number. So fixated on it that they would go to desperate measures to re-attain that amount. All the while they would bleed and bleed chips. They would become more and more agitated and try ever more desperate measures to get it back. This would work sometimes but ultimately would speed up the process. Eventually they would get back to their initial buy in and just look morose. At that point they were on auto pilot. They had no control anymore. Especially not after the next step would occur--they'd drop below their buy-in.

This then becomes a different phenomenon. It's amazing to watch it all happen in front of you night after night after night. It's all so fast. The emotional roller coaster you witness. It's the same pattern and usually same result. I knew one guy who would literally be there every time I played and would come in and blow $1K and leave. Every time. Every time! I never saw him win. Not once.

So alright anyway, when someone loses money on their buyin it's a diff thing but no less powerful. It's called being stuck. The wind jut leaves their sails and they look hungry, desperate. This number now becomes their buy in and they just HAVE to get back to that number. If see guys "stuck" a few hundred and then get lucky and be up like $30 and omg! The change! They take a deep sign of relief and laugh a little and start talking again (before they were despondent). These people were totally dependent upon the outcome to feel good. And I took advantage of it.

You all are stuck right now. You're leading with your heart, not your head. When they did that almost invariably they would lose their whole stack and walk out with their head down (or buy in again and be too upset to play well, etc). It's simply unwise to continue here any longer. There is no sign that things will improve. We have some new posters that come by now and then when the price looks to have stabilized a bit, maybe they even tr to pump a while and maybe even become moderator. But there has only been one trend here the last 11 months--down.

Now we're at $1.50 ish. Looks stable right? Sure, right up until they terminate the P3 study, or raise again (soon) at a discount to the closing price. Have you noticed bioland has already rallied while NWBO stays flat? Do you imagine that as some sort of good sign?

So I've decided to put my money where my mouth is and go short. Not a very large amount of my NPV, but you know--enough to beat a table full of stuck players, that's for sure ;)

The fundamentals and risks here are just really horrible. The latest UCLA thing tells me something bad too. But I won't get into all that. You all see it as bullish. Okay.

Let's see what happens. It's been my experience that those who are stuck and really FEEL IT will never capitulate until they've lost it all.