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trader53

01/19/16 5:46 AM

#81298 RE: trader53 #81187

S&P 500 - Weekend Update

The market closed on Friday at SPX 1880

Historically, Cycle wave bear markets
have lost 45% to 50% of market value.


This would suggest a bear market low
around SPX 1100
over the next year or so.



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trader53

01/20/16 7:28 PM

#81368 RE: trader53 #81187

S&P 500 - downtrend may have just ended.

https://caldaro.wordpress.com/

Wednesday Update

Posted on January 20, 2016




SHORT TERM: gap down opening, DOW -249

The market gapped down at the open today
then worked its way down to SPX 1812 in early afternoon.

Our potential five waves up for a C wave of a zigzag,
from yesterday’s SPX 1865,
was nullified at the opening.

At today’s low the SPX hit 1812,
which was in between the 1828 pivot
and the SPX 1791 Fibonacci level noted over the weekend.

The rally that followed from that low
is the best rally since the Int. C wave began at SPX 2082.

Also at the low
there is a positive divergence on the daily charts,
suggesting this 300 point downtrend may have just ended.

A move into the mid-1880’s would add to this possibility.

Short term support
is at the 1841 and 1828 pivots,

with resistance at the 1869 and 1901 pivots.

Short term momentum
swung from quite oversold
to nearly overbought during this afternoon’s rally.

Volatile market, best to your trading!







* Note - The October 2015 Bottom, resembles 1998 and 2011 Bottoms


LONG TERM: Bear market

MEDIUM TERM: Downtrend

* Primary Waves I and II - completed in 2011

* Primary Waves III and IV - completed in 2015

* Primary Wave V - Failed
















* Note - The October 2015 Bottom, resembles 1998 and 2011 Bottoms





































LONG TERM: Bear market

MEDIUM TERM: Downtrend

* Primary Waves I and II - completed in 2011

* Primary Waves III and IV - completed in 2015

* Primary Wave V - Failed








Since 1929 there have been 13 bull markets
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http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=W&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p83822707561

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p43140782454