Saturday, January 16, 2016 2:16:03 PM
https://caldaro.wordpress.com/
Friday Update
Posted on January 16, 2016
LONG TERM: Bear Market
After 6+ years of a rising stock market,
which more than tripled,
the bull market ended with a very rare,
(in fact I don’t recall ever seeing one of this degree),
failed fifth wave pattern
in December, 2015.
After the market sold off sharply in August
to complete Primary wave IV,
we suggested two possible scenarios for the months ahead.
First,
if the market made new highs during the first uptrend
the bull market would be over when that uptrend ended.
Second,
if the market failed to make new highs
during the first uptrend
Primary wave V will probably extend.
This market did neither of those two options.
It failed to make new highs during the first uptrend
and topped.
Don’t recall ever seeing this either.
It has been that kind of bull market.
One hundred and thirty years of stock market data
and it is still doing new things.
We have been labeling this bull market
as a five primary wave Cycle wave [1].
Primary waves I and II ended in 2011;
and Primary waves III, IV and V ended in 2015.
A [color=red]Cycle wave [2] bear market[/color] is now underway.
Historically, Cycle wave bear markets
have lost 45% to 50% of market value.
This would suggest a bear market low around SPX 1100
over the next year or so.
The market closed on Friday at SPX 1880.
Under the failed fifth primary wave scenario,
the market is currently in its first downtrend
of a new bear market.
Bear markets always unfold in corrective patterns.
Some are quite complex, like 2000-2002,
others are rather simple, like 2007-2009.
There is no way of telling ahead of time
whether this one will be simple or complex,
until a few trends have unfolded.
Yes, bear markets have uptrends and downtrends
like bull markets.
Only the main direction of the overall market
is in opposite direction.
* Note - The October 2015 Bottom, resembles 1998 and 2011 Bottoms
LONG TERM: Bear market
MEDIUM TERM: Downtrend
* Primary Waves I and II - completed in 2011
* Primary Waves III and IV - completed in 2015
* Primary Wave V - Failed
* Note - The October 2015 Bottom, resembles 1998 and 2011 Bottoms
LONG TERM: Bear market
MEDIUM TERM: Downtrend
* Primary Waves I and II - completed in 2011
* Primary Waves III and IV - completed in 2015
* Primary Wave V - Failed
Since 1929 there have been 13 bull markets
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=116564037
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=W&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p83822707561
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p43140782454
Join the InvestorsHub Community
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
