I agree, Woodford has no reason to drive the price down and undermine the other $150 million invested just to get a cheaper entry point on the last $30 million. He has every incentive to see it higher, as this has currently put him and his fund in a poor light, with lots of negative press. He was buying hand over fist in the open market in July and August, right up to $12 price.
No, I don't think he is stupid, and I do still believe he is in possession of information on the hold that none of us are. That is why I believe he is not supporting the current price as he was in July and August. I am convinced he signed a non-disclosure at the end of August or early September.
The enrollment hold has everyone else sitting on their hands (baring a few die-hard longs with dry powder), so we just wallow in the muck and fear until some news it announced around this subject, or some other positive development. It seems nobody is willing to sell until that happens. Also, there are 13 million shorts that need to cover, unless the company goes completely belly up.