Replies to post #14 on Mohacsy's Safe Portfolio Member Forum

[n4807g]

What's it gonna be today? Retail #'s flat, jobs still being lost. On the plus side Sec. Snow is talking up the economy....OK.

[n4807g]

Eric...where are you? Have you been following the news on swaps? Many nervous bond traders....pressure is building and there are (in theory) trigger points where they will "dump" longer duration T's; a prophecy met? No?

[n4807g]

The last hour has made more sense; bonds and equities selling pressure increased. Notice that gold is having a nice day.

[n4807g]

Glad to know when the "Bean Counter" (statistically relevant) recession ended. I was sweating bullets over that one!

[n4807g]

Oils doesn'T want to stay below $30.

[n4807g]

National average interest rate on 30 year fixed is now 6.15%. That's an increase of nearly 100 basis points from it's recent historic low. I smell smoke.....in the form of stagflation. As they say; the million $ question is...will the economy follow the script written by the FED? The last 2 1/2 years track record frankly, stinks. The low interest rate environment seems to have disappeared for the time being. Should be an interesting fall...(not a pun).

[n4807g]

Here's a link. Yesterday it was 5.91%

http://www.hsh.com/today.html

[n4807g]

Analysts calling for job cuts of at least 5,000 at LU.

[n4807g]

Hmmmm.......link >>

http://news.morningstar.com/news/DJ/M07/D22/1058911266770.html

[n4807g]

Uh..Oh!!! Shhhhhh..link >

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=aCNgFWNfPw9w&refer=home

[n4807g]

Seems to me that the 1st article I read about the 10 year yield presenting a huge problem for swaps was when it reached 4.50. The author thought it would take 3 months to reach that point. It's been about three weeks.

[n4807g]

On a different subject Eric...your "buddies" in the Golden State, are making the holding of Gold a better proposition. They just couldn't resist doing the "poly-tic-ally" correct dance to the budget deficit...what was that joke?

When Al Gore was "reinventing government" a cartoon was put in the paper depicting Bill and Al in neanderthal (sp) garb admiring Al's handy work; an enormous square stone wheel. The caption read, as Bill said: "shouldn't you have made it bigger".

A perfect fit for California's legislature.

[n4807g]

Thanks Uncle Sam. Bond sell-off today?

[n4807g]

Having said that, don't let trepidation rule the moment, I see a lot of upgrades this morning, jump right in, stocks are cheap.

[n4807g]

I'm stymied...how about you :-))

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Despite faster growth, a lack of jobs shows the U.S. economy still needs nursing to get back to full health, top Federal Reserve officials said on Thursday.
"I have to admit that until we actually book a couple of quarters of solid output growth and see the beginning of an employment rebound, there will be some doubts in my mind whether we are, at last, out of the woods," Chicago Fed President Michael Moskow said in an otherwise upbeat speech in Evanston, Illinois.

Hmmm...massive Federal spending in the 2nd quarter accounted for 1/2 of GDP. Revenue growth in many industries is flat. Pricing power for many companies is nonexistenet. WS still demands profits...so why are jobs still being lost. Why not ask Moe, Larry, and Curly. Their answers would make just as much sense; perhaps more. Aren't these the same guys who said by now we'd all have jobs and be rolling in clover? Some things never change.

[n4807g]

Oh..unless of course it shows a dramatic increase to the +, then it's the only indicator that counts. I'm betting on a SURPRISE!!!! for the worse.

[n4807g]

Ooops....this is smart money leaving. Investors can only come to one conclusion after the last 9 months of false starts and promises from the FED: obviously, they don't really have a clue. Just as blind as everyone else. So we're all hoping for an economic uptick but none appears to be forthcoming. With the threats of global terrorism, oil prices, the dollar, debt, and the real possibility that the support for our $ by outside intervention is waning what would a WS insider do?