Replies to post #124565 on Wave Systems Corp. (fka WAVXQ)

[Ispro]

Andi...don´t get me wrong but we´re not in all TPM equipped machines! Take the half!LOL

Burn rate 50M?

BR

ISPRO

[Vader]

Good morning Awk....


That "Revenue Run" is precisely why I think we get bought out well before we really drink from the "well"...

Not trying to bring up the ghost of buyouts past...just using the logic of the numbers...believing many 500 lb gorillas right now don't have a prayer at maintaining their growth and profit numbers...but they do have something very special...taking it from the Wizard of Oz...

"They have Cash my friend!"

[orda]

awk



We basically have 0% upgrades right now with how many outstanding TPMs in the market? What is going to happen that makes the upgrades kick in?

Vista? FDE drives? These don't automatically guarantee Wave upgrades.

[bbigtim]

awk/Your Revenue Model

The main point is that almost any upgrade activity at all will make Wave profitable and after that things get VERY interesting. A few more comments on your numbers follow.

First, I think that even with robust interest in upgrades, the actual percentage for all TPM-equipped machines could be low. Thats because our target customers are those who buy a TPM-equipped machine with the intention to really use its capabilities. I expect that the upgrade rate could be quite a bit higher than any of your percentages in this target subset of the total market and still lead to a pretty low upgrade rate among all TPM-equipped machines.

Second, I question whether Wave will be able to hold the $50 a seat revenue target if enterprise and government customers do purchase upgrades in volume. I'm not saying it will drop precipitously, only that I doubt that number will hold when the numbers get big enough.

[rwk]

awk / there you go again

underestimating future growth opportunities!

Just wait till 2008 when consumer pc's will start shipping in volume. Also, wireless devices including phones and Blackberries are just around the corner along side other trusted devices such as printers.

Honestly, sometimes you just seem to miss the bigger picture!

[bunnyman]

Awk:

Not only do you keep many of us lurkers up to date and focused on the technology, but also put into perspective how awesome the potential of this company can/could/will be. Your last 3 revenue/share price projections have increased dramatically, and yet when one runs the numbers...darn, they make scary sense!

On 8/15/2005 you predicted $47.00 per share in 2006
On 4/30/2006 you predicted $112.00 per share in 2007
Today you predicted $185-$648 per share in 2007

Question(s) for you:

Are you confident on your 2006 projections?
Is it a forgone conclusion that we reverse split?

Again, thanks for the effort you put forth on a continued basis, many of us here will never be able to fully epress our graditude for all you DD and wicked clarity.

My bunnies and I thank you!

Bunnyman