Replies to post #193714 on Biotech Values

[lgonber]

ESPR: thanks for your explanation. So if there are 2 different way of thinking, dificult to foresee what will happen here after news. Would you consider to add at $70 ? Also Dew, are you in SGYP? Any oppinion on it? (Phase III B data should be soon)

[mcbio]

ESPR

I subscribe to b)—i.e. if I were long ESPR, I would want the PCSK9 drugs to have narrow labels; however, there are several people on Twitter who are arguing for a). In support of b), I’ll note that the EMA label for Praluent (#msg-115659856) includes the primary prevention market and is much wider than anyone I know predicted.

Some of the commentary I have read has suggested the labels are narrower than expected. If it is truly a broader label for PCSK9 drug, shouldn't that be viewed as a positive for ESPR in that it may be more likely that an outcomes trial won't be required before full approval? Also, ESPR drug is an entirely different MoA from PCSK9 as I understand so presumably the drugs are not mutually exclusive.

If an outcomes trial is ultimately required for full approval, is it still possible that the risk-reward could be reasonable at ~$1.75B as the more immediately addressable/approvable patient population could still be meaningful enough to move the dial on ESPR shares?

[theordore]

Here are the biotechs that have been 'slaughtered' in the past 5 trading days. Tuesday: ILMN, Friday:ESPR, BIIB, AMGN, ALXN, Monday(yesterday):MYL, ADXS. The one-day percentage drops in these stocks are of the order of 10%+ in almost all cases. Any thoughts as to "what's going on here"? Is the start of a massive bubble burst in biotech land?
Yesterday was a scary day in the markets, to me. I follow several sector leaders, and across the board (virtually) the morning started off with a significant gap down. Over the rest of the day almost none of them went back upwards and closed the gap. It's as if 'something snapped' yesterday.
I also wish to note that for nearly a month my set of sector leaders have been telling a very different story that the S&P 500 or VTI. I see serious breakdown of price patterns and trend violations. I feel this market is in trouble.
How will biotech escape? This is rhetorical question. I mean to suggest that long positions in biotech are now very vulnerable to a market-wide shift in psychology/sentiment.
I just arrived at your board following a strong recommendation that I study your work. Your thoughts here will be appreciated.