Biotech Values

[mcbio]

ESPR

I subscribe to b)—i.e. if I were long ESPR, I would want the PCSK9 drugs to have narrow labels; however, there are several people on Twitter who are arguing for a). In support of b), I’ll note that the EMA label for Praluent (#msg-115659856) includes the primary prevention market and is much wider than anyone I know predicted.

Some of the commentary I have read has suggested the labels are narrower than expected. If it is truly a broader label for PCSK9 drug, shouldn't that be viewed as a positive for ESPR in that it may be more likely that an outcomes trial won't be required before full approval? Also, ESPR drug is an entirely different MoA from PCSK9 as I understand so presumably the drugs are not mutually exclusive.

If an outcomes trial is ultimately required for full approval, is it still possible that the risk-reward could be reasonable at ~$1.75B as the more immediately addressable/approvable patient population could still be meaningful enough to move the dial on ESPR shares?