Well, some people would argue that all important information is in the charts/sentiment indicators, and it makes little sense to pay attention to fundamentals (g)
- Interest rates are higher now.
Then we should rally when the hikes are over. Fed funds futures are expecting one more rate hike, that's it.
- Oil is higher now.
Should be positive for the market when it goes down.
-Housing is clearly weakening
It is a consensus now. How much of it is already priced in?
-the markets have sold off significantly in the months following 10 out of the last 12 rate hike cycles.
But how about a short-term rally "don't fight the fed" etc?
- October 2005 had year-end seasonality on it's side.
The current administration is unique (IMHO of course); maybe the cycle will be unusual? IMO 2007 is likely to be much tougher than many predict.
Seriously - good points, and I agree that the rally (if any) won't be strong.
The unpleasant thing is that everybody is now expecting a mild bounce. IMO it will be stronger than many expect (SMH 36+?)
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