Some people would argue that all important information is in the charts/sentiment indicators, and it makes little sense to pay attention to fundamentals (g)
I'm definitely not one of them....g. I think it makes sense to look at both technicals and fundamentals.
The market is manic-depressive, not efficient. I pay attention to Warren Buffett on this issue.
- Interest rates are higher now.
Then we should rally when the hikes are over. Fed funds futures are expecting one more rate hike, that's it.
That's my point about major sell-offs after 10 out of the last 12 rate hike cycles. People who think the markets are likely to rally and take-off after the fed stops hiking are betting against a lot of history.
-Housing is clearly weakening
It is a consensus now. How much of it is already priced in?
Housing is probably priced for a soft landing. I've read plenty of credible articles indicating that many large value fund managers have been establishing positions in the main homebuilders over the last few months on the premise that housing won't get a hard landing. If they're wrong, it will have a major negative effect on the economy and those folks will have to dump at a loss. I'm currently betting on that scenario.
IMO 2007 is likely to be much tougher than many predict.
Could be. Fundamentals like this aren't much good for timing, but I think they can provide a clue as to when the tide is beginning to change.
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