ajtj99's Market Pulse

[pstuartb]

as bullish as in April or in October 05

Aside from technicals, here are some relatively obvious reasons it may not be justified to be as bullish now as it paid to be back then:

- Interest rates are higher now.

- Oil and other commodities are higher now.

- Housing is clearly weakening while it was still in boom phase last year. Housing accounts for a large part of the job market as well as the equity extraction aspect, which is nearly gone now.

- The BOJ is withdrawing liquidity from the markets now.

- Regardless of whether the fed pauses now or at one of the next few meetings, the markets have sold off significantly in the months following 10 out of the last 12 rate hike cycles. That's because the fed tends to hike when the economy is strong and it quits hiking when the economy can't stand it anymore. If housing is any indication, we're probably getting there.

- October 2005 had year-end seasonality on it's side.

Things have changed since last year, and I think we're entering a different phase of the business cycle now. If so, we'll get oversold bounces, but they won't be as good as the bounces from last year's bottoms.