Replies to post #649749 on *SCALPSWINGSTRADDLE* ($$$)

[Zephyr]

Consumer Price Index
Released On 11/20/2014 8:30:00 AM For Oct, 2014
Prior Consensus Consensus Range Actual
CPI - M/M change 0.1 % -0.1 % -0.3 % to 0.0 % 0.0 %
CPI - Y/Y change 1.7 % 1.7 %
CPI less food & energy- M/M change 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % to 0.3 % 0.2 %
CPI less food & energy - Y/Y change 1.7 % 1.8 %
Highlights
Overall consumer prices in October were a flat 0.0 percent after firming 0.1 percent in September. Market expectations were for a 0.1 percent dip. Excluding food and energy, the CPI was warmer, gaining 0.2 percent after nudging up 0.1 percent in September. The consensus was for a 0.1 percent increase in October.

Energy fell 1.9 percent after slipping 0.7 percent September. Gasoline dropped 3.0 percent after declining 1.0 percent the month before. Food price inflation rose 0.1 percent, following a gain of 0.3 percent in September.

For the core rate, the shelter index, airline fares, household furnishings and operations, medical care, recreation, personal care, tobacco, and new vehicles were among the indexes that increased. The indexes for used cars and trucks and for apparel declined in October.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the headline CPI was up year-ago 1.7 percent versus 1.7 percent in September. Excluding food and energy, the year-ago pace was 1.8 percent, compared to 1.7 percent the month before.

While consumer price inflation firmed marginally, the year-ago rate is still below the Fed's target of 2 percent-especially when converted to a PCE basis which has been running below the CPI.

t is always a good idea to look at more than a few months of data to get a sense of changes in established trends. Monthly changes in the CPI are mainly volatile because of sharp fluctuations in food and energy prices. The core CPI eliminates the sharper fluctuations.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

Yearly changes tend to smooth out more severe monthly fluctuations and give a better idea of the underlying rate of inflation. Even with the smoother trend, note that the core CPI does not fluctuate as much as the total CPI.
Data Source: Haver Analytics