Thursday, November 20, 2014 9:16:07 AM
Jobless Claims
Released On 11/20/2014 8:30:00 AM For wk11/15, 2014
Prior Prior Revised Consensus Consensus Range Actual
New Claims - Level 290 K 293 K 284 K 265 K to 295 K 291 K
4-week Moving Average - Level 285.00 K 285.75 K 287.50 K
New Claims - Change 12 K 15 K -2 K
Highlights
Initial jobless claims are steady at very low levels but are not pointing to improvement for the November employment report. Initial claims edged down in the November 15 week, 2,000 lower to 291,000, while the 4-week average edged up, 1,750 higher to 287,500.
The latest week was the survey week for the November employment report and a comparison with the October survey week shows a 7,000 gain with the 4-week average up almost as much, at 6,250. This comparison won't be lifting estimates for the November report.
There is no survey-week comparison yet for continuing claims which are reported with a 1-week lag. In data for the November 8 week, continuing claims fell a sizable 73,000 to 2.330 million with the 4-week average down 6,000 to 2.369 million. This average has been trending slightly lower to repeated recovery lows. The unemployment rate for insured workers has been at a recovery low of 1.8 percent for the last 2 months.
There are no special factors in today's report, one that, despite the lack of improvement in initial claims, underscores the health right now in the jobs market.
Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
Released On 11/20/2014 8:30:00 AM For wk11/15, 2014
Prior Prior Revised Consensus Consensus Range Actual
New Claims - Level 290 K 293 K 284 K 265 K to 295 K 291 K
4-week Moving Average - Level 285.00 K 285.75 K 287.50 K
New Claims - Change 12 K 15 K -2 K
Highlights
Initial jobless claims are steady at very low levels but are not pointing to improvement for the November employment report. Initial claims edged down in the November 15 week, 2,000 lower to 291,000, while the 4-week average edged up, 1,750 higher to 287,500.
The latest week was the survey week for the November employment report and a comparison with the October survey week shows a 7,000 gain with the 4-week average up almost as much, at 6,250. This comparison won't be lifting estimates for the November report.
There is no survey-week comparison yet for continuing claims which are reported with a 1-week lag. In data for the November 8 week, continuing claims fell a sizable 73,000 to 2.330 million with the 4-week average down 6,000 to 2.369 million. This average has been trending slightly lower to repeated recovery lows. The unemployment rate for insured workers has been at a recovery low of 1.8 percent for the last 2 months.
There are no special factors in today's report, one that, despite the lack of improvement in initial claims, underscores the health right now in the jobs market.
Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
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