>>these boards are wallpapered with bears, sentiment is not as bullish as it's reported,
My analogy re:Japan was in the swift move off a bottom in the context of a secular bear that is still making new lows many years later. Your points, except for the above, are well-taken.
I would be more concerned with what Wall Street and Main Street think than what people on stock investment boards think. If you're going to claim to have a better 'mousetrap' for reporting sentiment, by all means, lay your cards(to switch metaphors)on the table. Otherwise, no one has any idea whether you're right or wrong, but the safer assumption is that you're wrong and that sentiment is as bullish as its reported.
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