AI
Saturday, May 31, 2003 11:46:55 PM
The market right now reminds me of Japan in 1999<<<
I don't think i can buy that analogy, in 1999 the nikkei was riding the nasdaq new economy wave like all world markets.
what may be a better comparison may be the initial bottom phases of the two bubble markets in the last 25 years, that would be the initial bottom of gold in 1982 and the initial bottom of the nikkei in 1992, the market bottomed last year 2002, maybe a pattern, they all bottomed at 4 year cycles.
It's fairly obvious right now this is not the 30's, with home prices skyrocketing and unemployment still in the mid single digits.
Gold made a slightly above 50% retrace of the drop before it rolled over, a coincident rally on the Spx would put us at around the 1100 something area.
the nikkei had less ooomph and probed into that big H&S top and rolled over,
pick your poison, which one, and of course this market may not act like those previous bubbles at all.
I think there is the potential that the major markets could break out and follow the nasdaq, of course i can't tell the future, nor can anyone else on these boards, or anywhere on WS, I just see a LOT of charts rolling up, and they haven't rolled over yet, they are making high lows and higher highs, the 200 dma is moving up, that's bullish until it changes, these boards are wallpapered with bears, sentiment is not as bullish as it's reported, the cboe p/c ratio has gone no-where in the last month while the markets have gone up, the rydex-ursa-nova ratio just a few days ago was near the march bottom.
I don't think i can buy that analogy, in 1999 the nikkei was riding the nasdaq new economy wave like all world markets.
what may be a better comparison may be the initial bottom phases of the two bubble markets in the last 25 years, that would be the initial bottom of gold in 1982 and the initial bottom of the nikkei in 1992, the market bottomed last year 2002, maybe a pattern, they all bottomed at 4 year cycles.
It's fairly obvious right now this is not the 30's, with home prices skyrocketing and unemployment still in the mid single digits.
Gold made a slightly above 50% retrace of the drop before it rolled over, a coincident rally on the Spx would put us at around the 1100 something area.
the nikkei had less ooomph and probed into that big H&S top and rolled over,
pick your poison, which one, and of course this market may not act like those previous bubbles at all.
I think there is the potential that the major markets could break out and follow the nasdaq, of course i can't tell the future, nor can anyone else on these boards, or anywhere on WS, I just see a LOT of charts rolling up, and they haven't rolled over yet, they are making high lows and higher highs, the 200 dma is moving up, that's bullish until it changes, these boards are wallpapered with bears, sentiment is not as bullish as it's reported, the cboe p/c ratio has gone no-where in the last month while the markets have gone up, the rydex-ursa-nova ratio just a few days ago was near the march bottom.
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