Replies to post #112684 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[Justa Werkenstiff]

Augie: No, don't have a link to a complete history but here is a cyclical bull period and, well, you be the judge:

http://www.topline-charts.com/downloads/V04h9706.pdf

Note it is bears over bulls plus bears in this chart. Right now, we are in the mid 20s in this chart. So it could get worse historically. Note what happened then. At best there was chop for an extended period. Cyclical bull had peaked.

Now go back to the bubble days of 2000 and, guess what, there are more bulls as a percentage of buls plus bears now than there was back at the peak:

http://www.vtoreport.com/sentiment/sentiment-table-2000.htm

My conclusion is that longer term sentiment is a firm negative. Check out the insider sale info posted today by Vickers and Thompson. Selling increased again.

[Justa Werkenstiff]

Augie: Here is a long term chart of what we were talking about. It is the four week moving average. Not it is dated a bit. Our four week moving average is 70.70%. Looks like my hunch was right. Have not seen these kind of numbers in quite awhile:


http://www.chartoftheday.com/20030528.htm