Replies to post #112688 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[Justa Werkenstiff]

And as a follow-up to my post, look how many bears it took for this thing to get a bottom in 1973-1974 -- 60% plus over an extended period.

[Joe Stocks]

>>>Check out the insider sale info posted today by Vickers and Thompson. Selling increased again.<<<

Do you have a link for that?

TIA,

[Ace Hanlon]

My take still is that the rally will continue as long as the NAZ and RUT outperform. But the bears will romp again once the broad market starts to underperform the averages IMHO.

[augieboo]

Justa, I make the current 4 week average of bears over bulls + bears out to be just over 29% using data from Schaeffer's. (See calculations below.) The low on your chart is something below 10%. A reading of 29% on your chart can correlate to any one of several spikes between the second quarter of 1974 and the third quarter of 1975. Whether today is analogous to mid-1974 or late 1975 makes a huge difference in how close we are to a top, IMDO.

Now go back to the bubble days of 2000 and, guess what, there are more bulls as a percentage of buls plus bears now than there was back at the peak:

Yes, but the question in my mind is, how high was that figure in the three years before the peak -- and the ten years before that?

My main thesis is that something has changed / is changing, and therefore data from the last three years is no longer of much, if any, use. If I had relied on data from the last three years I would still be holding my 2X NDX short, which means that as of today's action, (assuming a strong close), I would be down another 10% on the trade.

So, frothy sentiment or no frothy sentiment, I think this market is going up until it turns, and I'm not going to try to call or even speculate on a turn unless I can do so using data which goes back at least 20 years.

(:

augie

Note: I'm still hiding under the bed, flat as a pancake, and looking to stay that way until I figure out some of this junk.


http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/streetools/inv_intel.asp

Date: Bulls Bears
=========================
5/28 53.6 22.0
5/21 56.0 20.9
5/14 54.4 23.9
5/7 55.8 24.4
=========================
Totals: 219.8 91.2

Average: 54.95 22.8

22.8 / (22.8 + 54.95) =

22.8 / 77.75 = .29324 or 29%