Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[augieboo]

Justa: re:

Augie: Re: "cyclical bull move is starting." If it started, why can't one say it started in July 2002 and we are in the later stages or finishing it? I just put that forth as an idea.

One, (i.e., moi), can't say it because one didn't think of it. {G/NG}

Moreover, there is a pattern which I think I've identified in the NYSE Summation Index which I think I am seeing in my Nasdaq + NYSE summation-related work. The pattern seems to go like this:

[1] Leading up to and/or during a bear the summation index makes a series of lower highs.

[2] At some point during the bear, the summation then makes a much higher high -- higher than any previous high during the bear by a good margin. This seems to tend to mark the passing of the numerical bottom of the bear.

[3] Following this spike in the summation, the index continues generally upward for several quarters at least, even though the summation tends to make a new series of lower highs.

[4] This seems to be what I'm seeing in the market right now, and since the summation indexes are still spiking to that initial new high, (assuming my theory holds up over time), then we should be closer to the beginning than the end -- timewise at least -- of this bull move.

Four week moving average on Investors Intelligence is 70.70% as bulls as a percentage of bulls plus bears --- this is very frothy and I don't recall such an event even in bull markets.

That is pretty darn frothy. You wouldn't happen to have a source for really long term II data, would you?

I agree -- vix and vxn are bottoming. Vxn had bullish formation on daily yesterday and it is green as I write fwiw. But prices have yet to care.

Yep. And when I combine that lack of caring with my summation theory, (which may of course be complete crappola), it tends to reinforce my feeling that this move has farther to go upward.

Congratulations on being flat.

Sometimes being a coward has its good points. {ng}