Russia says 'nyet' to military in the Caspian By Sergei Blagov
Mar 21, 2006
MOSCOW - Russia, which has significant economic interests in the oil-and-gas-rich Caspian region, is warning against any military buildup in the area, particularly by the United States.
Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov made that clear during a two-day meeting last week of his counterparts from the other four countries that border the Caspian Sea - Iran, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.
He was upset by what he called "efforts by some nations from outside the region to infiltrate the Caspian politically and militarily with ill-defined goals ... It is easy to invite foreign troops, but it can be difficult to make them withdraw," he said.
Lavrov is believed to have been targeting the US, which is thought to be trying to establish a base in Azerbaijan while assisting the country with anoverhaul of its navy. But Azerbaijani Deputy Foreign Minister Khalaf Khalafov told a news conference in Moscow that a foreign military presence in the Caspian region "cannot be considered in isolation from other problems". However, he insisted that the sovereign rights of the coastal countries be respected.
Lavrov said Russia was not calling for withdrawal of all military forces from the region. "Demilitarization of the Caspian does not correspond to the realities of today," he said, adding that such a goal could entail "disarmament of the Caspian states, which now face new threats". Still, he warned against "any pretexts for conflicts in the region".
Lavrov said he hoped drafting a convention on the legal status of the Caspian Sea could be completed "in the very near future". The foreign ministers agreed to hold the next round of talks in Turkmen capital Ashgabat, but provided no date.
"Problems of the sea-bed delimitation in the southern sector, rules of military activities and transit as well as conditions for sub-sea pipelines still remain unresolved," Lavrov said.
In wake of the failed Caspian Sea summit in April 2002, Moscow pushed for a series of bilateral deals, instead of an overall agreement among all five littoral states. Moscow believes that in the absence of an overall pact, bilateral agreements on the Caspian are needed. Kazakhstan agreed and clinched a separate deal with Russia in 2002, while Azerbaijan eventually followed suit by signing a similar agreement in 2003.
The second Caspian summit has been subject to endless delays. In April 2004, Lavrov announced that it could have been convened in the second half of 2004 in Tehran. Iran said then that the summit had to be postponed to an undisclosed date after its presidential elections, but no new date was scheduled.
Nonetheless, Tehran reiterated readiness to host the summit, despite growing tensions around its nuclear ambitions. "Iran is ready to host the second summit of Caspian states," Mochtaba Damirchilu, of the Iranian Foreign Ministry, said at a briefing in Moscow. The Iranian delegation had held a number of consultations with Caspian states to define the date of the summit, he said.
Meantime, Moscow has renewed attempts to forge a multinational force in the Caspian Sea. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov suggested in a visit to Azerbaijan this year that his country, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan and Iran should make concerted efforts to deal with security threats in the region.
That could include defense, border control and intelligence services, he said. His Azerbaijani counterpart Safar Abiyev said his country was ready to cooperate with Russia to launch joint Caspian forces.
Still, Azerbaijan has made little secret of its uneasiness over Russia's strict rules regulating maritime and naval transit between the Caspian and the Black seas through Russian riverine routes.
"There were some problems in connection with the passage of vessels belonging to the Caspian states to the Black Sea," Khalafov said last month. "The Caspian littoral countries are now trying to resolve the problem."
Russian President Vladimir Putin last July attended an international conference on Caspian security, held on board Russia's Caspian Flotilla flagship naval vessel, Tatarstan. The conference supported an idea of creating a joint naval force of the littoral states, similar to the Black Sea Force and presumably under the Russian aegis.
The Russian Caspian Flotilla still remains the strongest naval force in the sea. After the division of the Soviet Caspian Flotilla in 1992 between Moscow and Baku, Russia kept three-quarters of the naval vessels and personnel. In the past five years, Russia nearly doubled its Caspian naval force, which now includes two frigates, 12 major patrol vessels and about 50 smaller vessels based in Astrakhan, as well as some 20,000 personnel.
Moscow has also moved to boost its economic clout in the northern Caspian.
Putin and Kazakh counterpart Nursultan Nazarbayev in July witnessed the signing of a 55-year production-sharing agreement for the Kurmangazy oilfield in the Caspian Sea. Russian and Kazakh investment in the Kurmangazy oil deposit could hit US$22 billion to $23 billion. Russia and Kazakhstan also finalized a deal to develop jointly the Khvalynskoye oil and gas field in the northern Caspian.
Russia's state-controlled gas giant Gazprom now plans to build a major petrochemical complex in Russia's main Caspian port of Astrakhan, and crude-oil production is expected to start in the Russian section of the Caspian shelf by next year.
Moscow's opposition to outside meddling in the Caspian region grows proportionately to its increasingly significant economic interests.
Sergei Blagov covers Russia and post-Soviet states, with special attention to Asia-related issues. He has contributed to Asia Times Online since 1996. Between 1983 and 1997, he was based in Southeast Asia. In 2001 and 2002, Nova Science Publishers, New York, published two of his books on Vietnamese history.
In an attempt to preserve control over energy exports out of the Central Asia, Russia is taking a two-track approach to opposing the possible construction of trans-Caspian Sea pipelines. While Russian diplomats argue against an undersea pipeline on environmental grounds, Moscow is concurrently beefing up its military presence in the region.
One or more pipelines stretching along the Caspian’s seabed would effectively break a Russian monopoly over export routes between Central Asia’s key energy producers – Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan – and Western markets. Kazakhstani diplomats have expressed interest in a trans-Caspian oil pipeline that would enable Astana’s oil exports to link up with the existing Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) route. Azerbaijani and Kazakhstani officials have announced that they hope to finalize an agreement by mid April on the volume of Astana’s exports via BTC.
At present, Russia enjoys a controlling interest over export routes for Central Asian energy. The Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) route, for example, connects oil fields in western Kazakhstan with the Russian port of Novorossiysk. Gas from Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan is similarly funneled through Russia.
Kazakhstan’s interest in BTC participation has been spurred in part by Moscow’s recent attempts to increase its grip on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, which in addition to the Russian and Kazakh governments includes major Western energy conglomerates. Over 30 million tons of Kazakhstani oil was pumped via the CPC pipeline in 2005. A planned expansion could increase capacity to roughly 67 million tons within a few years. However, disputes among the shareholders over transit fees charged by Russia and the consortium’s structure threaten to delay the pipeline’s expansion.
Russia’s existing energy policy counts on ongoing access to cheap Central Asian gas. The development of a gas export route that circumvents Russia would likely require Russia to pay higher prices for Central Asian energy. Thus, Moscow is working hard to prevent a trans-Caspian pipeline from getting off the drawing board.
The Russian government recently brushed aside protests from Greenpeace and other groups opposing construction of a Pacific pipeline because the chosen route poses a threat to Lake Baikal’s delicate ecological balance. Yet, when it comes to the Caspian, Russian diplomats are basing their opposition to an undersea route on environmental concerns. "A major gas pipeline would pose a serious, dangerous risk to the prosperity of the entire region," Alexander Golovin, Moscow’s special envoy on Caspian issues, said after a recent meeting in Moscow of the five Caspian littoral states -- Russia, Iran, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan.
Russia has staked out a position that a potential pipeline project, regardless of the route it takes on the seabed, would require the consent of all five Caspian littoral states in order to proceed. "The issue should be solved between all the countries around the Caspian," Golovin said. "The Caspian is a unique water source that must be treated carefully, including when it comes to pipeline installations."
Azerbaijan, which stands to gain the most from undersea pipelines, has challenged Russia’s assertions concerning the ecological danger. "The Russian side has submitted arguments, but Azerbaijani experts have provided demonstrations," said Azerbaijani Deputy Foreign Minister Khalaf Khalafov. At the same time, he refrained from rejecting the Russian pipeline stance outright. Kazakhstani officials have also questioned the validity of Russia’s environmental claims.
In addition to Russian opposition, the lack of a Caspian Sea territorial pact could hamper the construction of a pipeline. The five states have long been unable to agree on a formula to divide establish Caspian Sea boundaries. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Government representatives of the five littoral states have expressed hope that the current stalemate could be broken in the near future. Nevertheless, there have been few tangible signs of progress toward a comprehensive Caspian pact in recent months.
In support of its diplomatic efforts to derail discussion of a trans-Caspian pipeline, Moscow is taking steps to reinforce its strategic position in the region. On March 24, Russian media heralded the start of construction on a third Makhachkala-class gunboat intended for eventual deployment with the Caspian Flotilla.
At the same time, Russian officials, including Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, continue to press a diplomatic offensive designed to prevent the United States from establishing a military presence in the Caspian Basin. At the March 14-15 meeting of representatives from the five littoral states, Lavrov repeated Russia’s opposition to the potential deployment of "third-party military forces" in the region. The Russian foreign minister claimed that some foreign states, which he did not name, harbor ambitions "to infiltrate the Caspian politically and militarily with ill-defined goals." He added that the five Caspian littoral states had the ability to ensure regional security without outside help. "It is easy to invite foreign troops, but it can be difficult to make them withdraw," he said.
Observers interpreted Lavrov’s remarks as a reaction to widely rumored US attempts to establish a military base in Azerbaijan, and US efforts to assist Baku in upgrading its naval forces. Azerbaijan has not endorsed the Russian plan to prohibit outside military forces from being based in the region.
Editor’s Note: Sergei Blagov is a Moscow-based specialist in CIS political affairs.
Moscow is getting ready for the great war in Northern Caucasus
I don't think they are kidding. I am getting confirmation on this from different sources.
Note: Chinese troops, in a joint exercise with Russia, will be in the Northern Caucasus.
The United States foresees the Northern Caucasus as a new theatre of operations. #msg-10248118
The United States in the past has instigated dissention in the North Caucasus through backing the Chechens. Could still be doing the same. #msg-4589620
The US Secretary of Defence Donald Rumsfeld recently announced America's future war plans after the Pentagon completed it's Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR), a four-yearly strategy review. Christened the 'Long War' and modelled after the 'Cold War', the plan marks an attempt to re-package and re-market the 'War on Terror' to an increasingly sceptical American public and beyond. The report goes on to envisage Americas new theatre of operations as including the Horn of Africa, North Africa, central and south-east Asia the Northern Caucasus as well as the Middle East. #msg-10356292
This text omits that the ‘long war’ has, in addition, the pentagon preparing for war with China. #msg-10051566
With Peace Mission 2005 behind them, Russia and China are planning for new military exercises, this time to take place in southern Russia. Russian Interior Minister Rashid Nurgaliyev stated on March 2 that Russia and China have "made plans to conduct exercises in spring 2007 in [Russia's] Southern Federal District". According to Nurgaliyev, the joint exercises will include special forces from China's Public Security Ministry, in addition to special forces and regular troops from Russia's Interior Ministry. The exercises, described by Nurgaliyev as large-scale, will "develop skills for cooperation in accomplishing objectives to counter the threat of terrorism". #msg-10248118
We are looking at the area between the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea, Russian Southern Federal District.
-Am
Moscow is getting ready for the great war in Northern Caucasus
The observers, special services and journalists all over Russia discuss an opportunity of great war throughout Northern Caucasus which some commentators have already baptized as "the second caucasian war. The serious signs of impendent war also specify various western analytical sources, in particular experts of Jamesstone university of USA .
The Kremlin is getting ready for it. By the beginning of 2005 Moscow has concentrated 300 000 soldiers in Caucasus . Part of them, more than 100 000 (according to some data up to 200 000), are directly in the Chechen Republic .
Up to now the Russian forces have been dispersed over significant territory, including Rostov area which is populated by Russians , the Krasnodar and Stavropol territories. Currently, Moscow concentrates them in the Caucasian republics.
Yet on the 13th May the head of armies of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russian Federation Rogojkin declared, that additional units of his formations will be entered into Elista (Kalmikia), Cherkessk, Nalchik and Sochi. The militarization of all Northern Caucasus goes at full speed.
In the beginning of 2006 the brigades and battalions of the Ministry of Internal Affairs in Northern Caucasus will be replaced with regiments and divisions. Instead of battalions with 600 trunks there will be regiments with 2000. Besides in Dagestan and Karachaevo - Circassia will be based 2 additional mountain brigades. Officially they will serve supposedly " for the protection of borders ". But actually the task of the mountain brigade in Karachaevo - Circassia consists in protection of the Black sea coast against attacks of mojaheds, and the brigade in Dagestan will defend the coast of Caspian sea from attacks of mojaheds from the Chechen Republic .
At the same time Russian occupational garrisons will be reinforced in the Chechen Republic , Kabardino-Balkariyas, Ingushetia and Northern Ossetia .
This year Putin's regime has already began openly to prepare the citizens for general war in Caucasus . And this is after 6 years since he has publicly promised to people to finish with Chechen mojaheds within 2-3 months.
Prospects of total war openly are openly discussed even in army circles. Among the officers of an occupational grouping in the Chechen Republic this theme is one of main issue. Practically nobody doubts, that general destabilization and bloody fights are not far off.
The local puppet militia under the order of the Kremlin are trying to anticipate mojaheds and carry out so-called "stripping". Especially actively operate the puppet militiamen in Dagestan where their losses grow day by day due to impacts of Dagestan mojaheds.
In Ingushetia for prevention of possible scale operations from the mojaheds side, armies and local puppet militia establish new blocks and block roads between a mountain part of republic and plain. In Kabardino-Balkariya mombers of OMON regularly comb the area of Elbrus. Recently in suburb of Nalchik they have implemented searches in all houses after there were killed some militiamen.
Practically all observers and commentators specify that mojaheds have kept their promise, expanded a zone of guerrilla operation all over Northern Caucasus . Along with Dagestan, the attacks of mojaheds take place in Kabardino-Balkariya, Karachaevo - Circassia , Ingushetia.
According to last military sessions of mojaheds command under the supervision of the president Sheikh Abdul-Halim Sadulaev, significant activization of mojaheds in Northern Caucasus is expected. Thus commentators reckon that the establishments of the control from the mojaheds side in important territories is almost inevitable.
US and Israel warn of potential terrorist attack in Russia
05.04.2006
US Department of State US State Department advised Americans to take precautions when traveling in Russia, saying a heightened potential for terrorist attack remains in the country. "Presently, there is no specific indication that American institutions or citizens are targets, but there is a general risk of American citizens being victims of indiscriminate terrorist attacks", the announcement said. The State Department said Americans should avoid areas where crowds are expected to gather, take commonsense precautions and register with the American Embassy or nearest consulate general. The department also reiterated a travel warning to Americans for the north Caucasus region. "Due to continued civil and political unrest throughout much of the Caucasus region, the Department of State already warns US citizens against travel to Chechnya and all areas that border it: North Ossetia, Ingushetia, Daghestan, Stavropol, Karachayevo-Cherkessiya and Kabardino-Balkaria", the announcement said. According to our sources at the end of March the Israeli Counter Terrorism Staff (under the National Security Council) - LUTAR also issued a warning to the citizens traveling to Russia. Based on the intelligence data it especially warned of visiting the areas of Russia bordering Chechnya, in Chechnya and Chechen-Georgian border. There are special warnings that local terrorists groups may aspire to kidnap or harm Israelis. As for the security feeling among the natives, adults in Russia are split over the possibility of a terrorist attack. According to a poll by the Public Opinion Foundation. 44 percent of respondents think an act of terrorism is likely to take place in their area, Angus Reid Global Scan reported. Last month, the National Anti-Terrorism Committee (NATC) held its first meeting in Moscow. NATC chairman and Federal Security Service director Nikolay Patrushev declared, "Our aim is to minimize the possibility of terrorist acts. The terrorist threat is real and serious". The NATC will be responsible for drafting a plan to improve counter-terrorism strategies in the North Caucasus. Several terrorist incidents in Russia have been blamed on the Chechen separatists, including two airplane crashes, a suicide bombing in Moscow, the assassination of Chechnya’s president Akhmad Kadyrov in May 2004, and two high-profile incursions - one in October 2002 inside a Moscow theatre, and another in a Beslan middle school in September 2004. Last month, Russia’s new anti-terrorism bill was signed into law. The legislation was presented in December 2004 - just three months after the Beslan attack - but was stalled due to strong criticism about the possible violation of civil liberties. The polling data shows that despite the new bill and NATC creation 44 percent fear that the secret services are unable to prevent a terrorist act in their living area. 42 percent believe it will not take place and 14 left undecided. One of the most contentious provisions of the anti-terrorism bill allows the Russian military to shoot down hijacked passenger planes. Only 26 percent of respondents approve of this clause, while 46 – disapprove.
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