Re GILD estimates and Sovaldi sales:
Start with Sov number of TRx which yield ~$1.6B of revenue. I then reduced the amount for discounts and other issues to get to around $1.4B of US actual sales. So stocking and non-US sales become the become the bigger unknowns. With nothing really to guide me from GILD, I look at JNJ and Oly sales. It had 10,586 TRx, a $66K (vs. $84K) cost for 12 wks, and $354MM of sales in Q1. The math would be 354x(57134/10586)x(84000/66000)=2.443B.
I find that number just too much, though I think the non-US sales may be higher than Oly. So I gave the calculation a discount of a little less than 10%.
As to earnings, it is even more unscientific. With advertising starting, a lower tax rate due to Irish profits, good if not great HIV TRx's continuing, etc., anything is a guess. But I think that $2.22B additional sales should produce at least $.90/sh of additional earnings.
As indicated previously, the more important information that GILD could provide would be Q2 sales estimates for Sol; pricing for all-oral HCV treatment; and better long-term market guidance for HCV generally; in order of importance. And it is unlikely that GILD will give meaningful guidance on any of the issues. We know that TRx's in the US are running at a rate for the first 2 weeks of the quarter around 80% higher than the average for last quarter. So the US un-discounted sales would be $2.88B if TRx stay up (with no guarantees that it will happen). There probably would be limited stocking, but no de-stocking as should occur in Q3 as the market prepares for all-oral. Non-US sales should be strong. It will be most interesting to see what analysts do with Q2 and the rest of the year. The market will be most interested in the out-year estimates and if more analysts follow the Goldman lead of saying that the market is more limited than previously assumed or that GILD will have smaller part of the overall market.
Other views?
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