Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

My estimate for 1Q14 Sovaldi sales is $1.95B, comprised as follows:

• $1.80B from the US (see below);

• $90M from Germany (see #msg-100840096);

• $60M from the UK (#msg-100840096).

The US estimate of $1.80B consists of $1.58B of end-user sales and $220M of inventory stocking. (I.e. the estimated US inventory stocking is 13% of US end-user sales and 12% of overall US sales.) The $1.58B estimate of US end-user sales is based on 67,200 (28-day) prescriptions (an IMS capture rate of 85%) at an ASP of $23,500 (a 16% discount to the list price).