GILD - Sovaldi Q1 estimates:
Background - the total scripts that have been reported by IMS in Q1 were 57,134. The reported price per script would be $28,000. Purported sales would be ~$1.6B. But there is discounting, charity sales, incomplete IMS numbers, stocking, foreign sales, etc. So we will really know only when the numbers are reported.
Many estimated numbers were established before sales were known for February and March and have not been updated. The "consensus" numbers reflect this fact. Many analysts have stated recently that the consensus for Sovaldi sales is $900MM. Below are the consensus earnings for Q1. The analyst estimates are incomplete and I encourage others to add numbers they have (I have also added the date of the estimate). Finally, I am looking for everyone to provide their own estimate of Sovaldi sales and earnings, either by copying the below listing and adding theirs or simply posting and I will add the numbers eventually (I will provide the rationale for my estimates, such as it is, in a separate post).
Consensus earnings
Yahoo - .89
Earnings Whisper - .85
Analysts estimates
Wells Fargo - Sov: $1.8B (4/15) - EPS: $1.18 (2/5 based upon sales Of $1.4B)
Goldman Sachs - Sov: $1.4B - EPS: $.96 (both 4/14)
Credit Swisse - Sov: $1.05 - EPS: $.85 (both 2/10)
Barclays - EPS: $.81 (4/2)
Amateur analysts
Rocky - Sov: $2.22B - EPS: $1.46
Zipjet - Sov: $2.1B
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