Biotech Values

[dewophile]

not sure where you get this from but what I've read it is quite the opposite - and the NHANES survey underrepresents the true prevalence by omitting high risk populations. e.g.

http://www.natap.org/2011/HCV/HepatitisCvirusinfectioninUSAAnestimatetrue%20prevalenceLiverInternational9.2011.pdf

one can quibble about how many are exactly infected, how many will then get treated, etc. but I just don't see a scenario where there are fewer than say 50K patients treated annually several years out from the introduction of all orals. At 100K a pop it translates to a 5 billion market in the US. It may be below analyst expectations, but I certainly wouldn't characterize it as "bust"

If you read the monograph above the incidence of cirrhosis is expected to peak 2025 without intervention. that tells me patients who don't see their doctor regularly are going to first get symptomatic and diagnosed 10+ years out. So I do think there is a medium term opportunity that is substantial (and is going to be much larger than just the newly infected case rate may lead one to believe)