Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

ABT ReadMeFirst

[ABT reports superlative all-oral phase-2 results in HCV—program will advance to phase-3;
musings: do all-oral HCV programs require a nuke?;
Bardoxolone program in CKD terminated;
3Q12 financial results and EPS guidance for 4Q12;
dividend payouts of ABT and ABBV following 12/31/12 split-up.]



CORPORATE AND FINANCIAL

Planned split into two companies (ABT and ABBV)
#msg-68255976 Abbott announces split into two companies
#msg-73944124 Analysts begin to calculate post-split valuation
#msg-80718456 Combined ABT/ABBV dividend will increase to $2.12 in 2013
#msg-80008890 ABBV’s presumptive CEO misstated academic degrees
#msg-77970916 Barron’s profiles Miles White, ABT’s CEO


Finances, valuation, and track record
#msg-80632850 3Q12 financial results
#msg-80718303 Non-GAAP EPS guidance for 4Q12
#msg-72254159 ABT hikes dividend for 40th consecutive year!
#msg-61658107 ABT is undervalued, says Barron’s (dated but still a good read)
#msg-34774636 ABT’s M&A track record is second to none



THE NEW ABBOTT (current ABT minus AbbVie)

Branded generics and nutritionals businesses
#msg-75216470 New Abbott will be a consumer powerhouse
#msg-74567343 New Abbott is beneficiary of The Global Demographic Tailwind (1)
#msg-68255872 New Abbott is beneficiary of The Global Demographic Tailwind (2)
#msg-61699995 Drug sales in emerging markets: $400B in 2020 (IMS)
#msg-61960541 Branded generics in emerging markets—connecting the dots
#msg-62037218 More on branded generics (Forbes)
#msg-50473238 India’s fake drugs are a real problem
#msg-50436738 Piramal acquisition (May 2010)
#msg-50022514 Zydus Cadila acquisition (May 2010)
#msg-41922225 Solvay acquisition (Sep 2009)


Vascular business
#msg-68583591 FDA approves Xience Prime
#msg-65470041 60% of Xience sales are ex-US
#msg-54841998 Xience continues to best Taxus in SPIRIT IV
#msg-54842212 Xience crushes Taxus Liberté at 2 years
#msg-64256077 JNJ withdraws from DES business

#msg-79908512 ABT launches Absorb bioresorbable stent in 30 countries
#msg-61503095 WSJ profiles Absorb


Diagnostics business
#msg-66584680 FDA approves companion diagnostic for PFE’s Xalkori
#msg-69394663 ABT, GSK ink deal for PLAME-antigen companion diagnostic



ABBVIE

Humira
#msg-80043808 Humira has wide array of approved indications (newest: UC)
#msg-79013119 UC indication could garner additional $1B in Humira sales
#msg-61383188 Musings on threat to Humira from Tofacitinib (1)
#msg-66970993 Musings on threat to Humira from Tofacitinib (2)
#msg-79941294 Survey of rheumatologists re FoB’s is bullish for ABT

#msg-68743172 Data on Humira and Tofacitinib from ACR 2011
#msg-61989536 Antibodies against Humira are no big deal
#msg-76327260 Roche study of Actemra vs Humira was biased
#msg-74453479 A short history of Humira (Luke Timmerman)
#msg-39417561 Size and segments of US market for RA


HCV pipeline
#msg-80736847 ABT reports superlative interim data in Aviator trial (table)
#msg-80543900 ABT reports superlative interim data in Aviator trial (FierceBiotech)
#msg-80555635 Comparison of Aviator and PILOT studies
#msg-80634180 ABT advances all-oral HCV program to phase-3 (1)
#msg-80633053 ABT advances all-oral HCV program to phase-3 (2)
#msg-80633316 ABT advances all-oral HCV program to phase-3 (3)
#msg-80555343 Do all-oral HCV programs require a nuke?


Elagolix program
#msg-76277354 Elagolix starts phase-3 in endometriosis
#msg-67040135 Elagolix starts phase-2 in uterine fibroids
#msg-51386069 Economics of Elagolix partnership with NBIX
#msg-51343858 ABT licenses NBIX’s Elagolix for endometriosis


Lipid franchise
#msg-68828037 FDA requests phase-4 “outcomes” trial for TriLipix
#msg-62207709 Capsule summary of TriCor ACCORD study
#msg-62591674 Bearish musings on TriCor/TriLipix (Forbes)
#msg-51992958 Does TriCor prevent diabetic retinopathy?
#msg-63617748 NIH terminates Niaspan AIM-HIGH study
#msg-28510348 Heart disease: Not about cholesterol?
#msg-63656000 Once is happenstance, twice is coincidence, three times…


Miscellaneous
#msg-80718303 ABT, Reata terminate Bardoxolone program
#msg-68221363 Pipeline overview from 10/21/11 webcast

#msg-68245312 Daclizumab succeeds in phase-2b
#msg-50509176 Phase-3 Daclizumab trial in RRMS begins
#msg-78092224 NIH study elucidates the MoA of Daclizumab in MS

#msg-64449921 ABT licenses anti-CD4 mAb from Biotest AG
#msg-57504180 Phase-2 Elotuzumab Data in MM