Intel Corp (INTC)

[ibc]

I don't think it's unwritten.
I think my posts have been pretty clear on my bearish long term outlook for INTC.

I think it's useful to hear both bullish and bearish scenarios before making investment or trading decisions.
Since I'm bearish, I'd like to hear the bullish arguments which is why I post here.
So far, I haven't really heard anything that would give me confidence that INTC can arrest ASP declines in the client.

I currently have no INTC stock position, but I have held the stock in the past.
I don't think ARMH is a particularly attractive investment.
I do have an investment in AAPL but I don't think the current price is attractive for adding new shares.

For INTC,
Nomura is at $1.80 for 2013 EPS
Baird is at $1.85 for 2013 EPS

At those EPS levels, $21.75 is still too high to be investible for me.
For a trade, I'm in a bearish put-spread - long November $22 puts and short the November $19 puts.

As for an investment, it's more interesting at $19 where I would be a buyer for the server business and the "optionality" of the fab technology potentially being used to make future Apple AX processors.
I'm also intrigued by a potential breakup scenario where INTC spins off the fabs to become a pure foundry.
I think this could unlock a lot of value if the CPU design team is a separate entity while the foundry can attract customers away from TSMC such as Apple, Qualcomm or potentially even Xilinx/Altera and others.

Since I'm not a fab-tech expert, it would be interesting to hear from knowledgable people on this board about this possibility.