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mmoy

10/10/12 2:36 PM

#112476 RE: ibc #112475

My main issue with the current market is that we are getting closer to the fiscal cliff and employers are just starting to do things about it. Combine that with the slowing growth in China, the problems in the middle-east (Syria, Iran), Asia (China-Japan over an island) and indicators like the falling price of oil, and it makes for a difficult macro environment.

On the other hand, shorting in the current market is risky because the Fed, or China or Europe could always add a bond-buying or stimulus program to generate a short-squeeze.

It's a lot easier to just lock in profits and sit the rest of the year out. We should have far more clarity in the new year.
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chipguy

10/10/12 3:10 PM

#112478 RE: ibc #112475

I'm also intrigued by a potential breakup scenario where INTC spins off the fabs to become a pure foundry.

I view this simplistic scenario like buying a brand new Porsche
and cutting it in half with a blowtorch to enhance its value as two
pieces of metal instead of one.

The supreme value of Intel as it exists today is that its design
methodology drives its process development at the same time
that its process development drives its design methodology in a
very tight virtuous circle. No other corporate or institutional entity
comes close to matching Intel in *either* the design or process
development side let alone the synergistic combination and overall
technical capability to deliver the most advanced digital ICs in
high volumes and low cost.

Currently Intel is supreme in the field of high performance general
purpose MPUs but the focus is being expanded to include low
power and low cost computing, graphics, and wireless. Intel is
only weak in areas of rapid change, high fragmentation, or where
there is no value to be added beyond commodity products. Once
an IC market is shown to be sizable, persistant, and lucrative it
becomes a target for domination by Intel's business/technology
model. Transmeta experienced the back blast from this principle
in operation a decade ago and it is likely ARM will duplicate the
experience in its high end markets in the years ahead.
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Tenchu

10/10/12 5:19 PM

#112484 RE: ibc #112475

Ibc,

Nomura is at $1.80 for 2013 EPS
Baird is at $1.85 for 2013 EPS



Which happen to be the lowest estimates for INTC's 2013 earnings.

Average estimate is $2.18 for 2013 and $2.12 for this year.

Tenchu