I'm basing my prediction [of a high-single-digit royalty rate] on the fact that...generally process-type patents don't hold up at all (there is typically some way to circumvent them)…
What are you basing the above assertion on? In fact, US generic-drug litigation pertaining to process patents is extremely rare.
Almost all US generic-drug patent litigation pertains to composition-of-matter patents, formulation patents, or method-of-use patents. Process patents are not allowed in the FDA’s Orange Book, so the rare generic-drug litigation concerning such patents falls outside the scope of the Hatch-Waxman framework.
“The efficient-market hypothesis may be the foremost piece of B.S. ever promulgated in any area of human knowledge!”