Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

AMRN—I don't think ABT would want to have two drugs for same purpose, but two negative outcome trials in hand.

I don’t concur that ABT necessarily wouldn’t be interested in AMR101 because of overlap with TriCor/TriLipix. The big hope for ABT’s fenofibrate franchise was supposed to be Certriad, but that program is now defunct. During investor presentations, what remains of the franchise seems to be viewed by ABT as little more than an afterthought.

The main risk with AMRN reaching its potential valuation is the outcome trial. FDA requires the trial to be substantially underway before approval in 200-500mg/dl TG population.

According to today's CC, the FDA has asked that the outcomes trial be “substantially underway” before AMRN submits an NDA based on the ANCHOR population, so this submission may take a little while unless the FDA relents.