Thoughtful post with a very timely closing line Mr Lurgio, i.e., "We are closing in on what we all hope will be good times so lets all get along."
I'm thinking that we are entering the window of time for Nokia to make their best settlement offer if they are going to make one. The ICC Court of Arbitration has given notice they will deliver their rulings on Nokia's 2G obligations to InterDigital no later than May 31st, and IMO that means it could come a few weeks earlier than that. If a settlement is to be negotiated(?), there is not much time left for Nokia to delay before putting a serious offer on the table.
Some thoughts on why Nokia might want to negotiate a settlement rather than wait for the ICC rulings?
1) Nokia has acknowledged that they owe InterDigital "something" for 2G, and they have set up an accounting provision in their accounts for "IPR infringement". (Last time I checked, that IPR infringement provision was for more than $400 million U.S.)
2) Guessing that waiting for the ICC award will introduce at least two risks regarding 2G that a negotiated settlement eliminates, i.e., the total amount to be paid and the terms for making that payment. The thought is that Nokia's leverage in trading off some of their 2G obligation for a 3G rate and other considerations will disappear when the award is made. In addition, Nokia's leverage in negotiating extended payment terms on any award amount will be all but eliminated once the ICC delivers their rulings.
3) Once the ICC Court of Arbitration validates Ericsson and SONY/Ericsson as 2G rate triggers under terms of their 1999 license agreement with InterDigital,.... they will not have much argument left to make when/if Ericsson and SONY/Ericsson license with InterDigital for 3G. Does Nokia want to risk having somebody else set their 3G rates and risk getting surprised on 3G the same way they did when that happened with their 2G rates? Or will they want to participate in the rate setting negotiation this time?
My take on those points leads me to expect Nokia to make a serious settlement offer any day now. The BIG question I have is how InterDigital wants things to play out vs Nokia at this point in time.
Nailing that big nasty bully to the wall with a "Final Judgment" ruling on 2G sure would be sweet music for the rest of the wireless industry to hear. You don't have to worry about getting any more of Rodney Dangerfield's "no respect" treatment after you knock the biggest bully around flat on his wallet.
In addition, IMO the ICC Court of Arbitation needs to give serious consideration to the harm that Nokia's behavior vs patents in general, and InterDigital in particular, has caused to the helpless employees and investors of small firms like InterDigital. Based on what I can determine(?), the ICC Court of Arbitration has the authority to levy punitive damages when/if they see behavior that warrants such action. If that is true and they do not levy punitive damages, then it seems like they would be giving an appearance of tacit approval on Nokia's actions.
All that aside, IMO the issue that will decide whether InterDigital accepts any settlement offer Nokia chooses to make will be the 3G rates and terms Nokia is willing to agree. If Nokia steps up to what InterDigital is asking for on 3G, the deal will be done. I'm thinking that could happen about any day now if it is going to happen before the 2G arb ruling comes down.
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