Wilco, I have looked at past history of insider sales, specifically looking at last year.
Anytime a company insider sells shares, especially when the sale is not a programmed sale (part of a 10b5-1 plan), the tendency is for investors to question whether the stock is overvalued. Furthermore, the shorts recognize this as an opportunity to spread FUD and force the stock into a downward spiral. But those downturns in the stock price typically only last a few days.
The fact of the matter is that company executives and directors sometimes sell for personal reasons (ie. buying a new home, kids college tuition, etc.). I'm not a fan of posting personal information on message boards, so I don't want to encourage any rumors about Roath's personal life. But, we should look at the fact that he sold 148,000 shares in 2010 at prices from $27.91 to $35.59 and the stock is now at $45.41 (as I post this). He sold last year for his own personal reasons, but we can look at history and determine that his sales certainly didn't foreshadow that the stock was overvalued...in fact, just the opposite. When he sold.... the stock typically dropped for a few days after his form 4 showed up at the SEC. But soon after the initial downward reaction, the stock was up....so his sales typically portend a coming rise in the stocks' price. So, if history is any lesson, now that we've had a few down days, the stock should turn around and head up.
JMHO,
NJ
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