The Rising Influence of Rising Affluence

[OakesCS]

yeah, i agree that peak oilists are akin to cultists but i'm skeptical that the "embarrassment of mineral riches" uncovered by drillers in recent years will restrain oil prices because I don't think the producing countries will escape the political problems that have accompanied prior "windfalls" in many countries. Venezuela is amongst the largest reserve holders in the world and was not lacking in production capability yet their production has been steadily declining for 13 years. Nigeria: similar situation. Russia: sharp decline in rate of increase in production starting about 6 yrs ago. Iran: production almost flat for past 20 yrs and about 60% of what it was in 1975 - again in spite of having very large reserves and having had no shortage of production capability. Iraq: huge reserves and production capability; obviously production has been problematic over past ~20 yrs but i wouldn't bet on it getting vastly better for a prolonged period after US troops leave.

All of these countries would've loved to have taken advantage of >$100/bbl oil which would have dampened further price increases; however, none of these countries could significantly increase production because of their fouled up political environments/systems.

I hope the folks in Brazil and Ghana fare much better but given Brazil's history and the most recent election results i'm not betting on rosy and painless results. I know a person from Ghana and while she's proud of her country, she shares the fear that the country's 'embarassment of mineral riches' may be a curse.