Biotech Values

[iwfal]

they can wait 6 months, have 90% confidence they can do a raise at say 20% higher share price (discounted somewhat for some macro risk)

My critique of this is the same as my critique here:

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=57498898

I.e. that pre-supposes they have to do a raise. But if they can afford to wait 5 months they would have 90% chance they don't have to do a raise at all.

PS The reason for rehashing this is that I still can't think of a way to unambiguously value money now vs 1, 5, 10 ... percent risk.