Replies to post #110432 on Biotech Values

[dewophile]

I.e. that pre-supposes they have to do a raise. But if they can afford to wait 5 months they would have 90% chance they don't have to do a raise at all

i agree with you i think mnta management is concerned of a t-enox approval within the next 6 months, but i still think their degree of concern is on the order of 10% or less. if they want to move a program forward taking a 10% risk of hurting their business development plans was not worth avoiding 9% dilution in their opinion. i happen to disagree with this because they already will have 170M in cash/receivables on hand, so what does the extra 60M now really do for them? i will give them the benefit of the doubt and hope we find out at next week's cc

as for where their concern stems from, i agree with tinker it has to do with the baseline risk of another generic (perhaps enhanced somewhat by teva's posturing) more than some credible knowledge that something specific is cooking at the FDA. frankly i don;t even think teva quite knows what is going on at the fda wrt immunogenicity of their application, which they still readily admit is what is holding up the application (and which is what i think the most difficult hurdle anyway for a generic given the risk of HIT, and the fact immunogenicity in effect describes how close the less active moities are in the soup - since i am confident teva's product met sameness of active ingredient - i.e. xa/iia activity)

i also find it somewhat reassuring SNY, which does stand to lose out too if t-enox gets approved in a meaningful way, doesn't seem to have been affected at all by teva's comments and this recent development