Biotech Values

[dewophile]

my guess is that they consider the risk more than 10%

that all depends on what the opportunity cost of waiting to move one of their programs forward is. let's say they have a good idea from prospective partners on what they need in a 2b for m118. they can choose to move forward and not raise money, and fund the trial entirely from m-enox proceeds, but run a 10% risk that funds dry up in the middle of what is likely to be a 1-2 year study. they can wait 6 months, have 90% confidence they can do a raise at say 20% higher share price (discounted somewhat for some macro risk), or they can raise money now and fund the trial with greater dilution but go from a 10% chance to a 0% chance of running out of funding. i think in this scenario you take the money, start the trial now, and suck up the extra dilution. that on balance is better for the business. i might even do a raise for a 5% risk in such a scenario. same for FoB - if they have good reason to think they need to get a program moving forward to reach an inflection point to realize value sooner for the program then that too is reason to raise at a lower risk level imo. but if they are just raising to shore up a balance sheet with no clear/good reason to move a program forward sooner rather than later then i agree wtih you that mnta managment thinks there is a >10% risk of approval of another generic near-term