QID/QLD Cycle Update Report #7 (Northam43-WAVES)
All in bold is what has changed from last report.
QID current cycles:
QID Daily Phase I, 1st Trading Day: Current price is 19.48 change of -.19. Today's high was 19.86 change of -.50. The lower trend line price is 19.70 change of -.05. 1st low of this cycle is at 19.46 change of .00. Average lows per daily cycle is 4.48. The current upper trend line price is 20.25 change of -.07. Current price is below the lower trend line. The average QID Daily Phase I cycle is 7 trading days.
QID Weekly Phase I, 2nd Trading Week: Current price is below the lower trend line price of 19.66 change of -.01. The current cycle low remains at 19.31. The average QID weekly Phase I cycle lasts 14 weeks. The last time Phase I lasted three weeks was August 11, 2008. The current upper trend line price is 20.97 change of .00.
QID Monthly Phase I, 11th Trading Month: The current price is below the lower trend line price of 25.29 change of .00. The upper trend line price is 31.72 change of .00. The average QID Monthly Phase I cycle lasts 9 months. The longest was 17 months from August 2006 to December 2007. So we could be 6 months or less from a QID long term bottom.
I currently have 5 QID positions at 28.57, 31.90, 32.92, 34.12, and 35.75.
QLD current cycles:
QLD Daily Phase II, 10th Trading Day: Current price is 56.66 change of +.55. Cycle high is at 57.20 change of .00. Todays high was 56.68 change of +.40. The average QLD Daily Phase II lasts 7 trading days. The last time QLD Daily Phase II had more than 10 trading days was January 11, 2010. The upper trend line price is 56.11 change of +.12. Current price is above the upper trend line.
QLD Weekly Phase II, 2nd Trading Week: The average QLD Weekly Phase II lasts 10 weeks. The current QLD Weekly cycle high is 57.20 change of .00. The upper trend line price is 57.13 change of .00. The lower trend line price is 53.54. The last time Phase II lasted 3 weeks, was November 2007 & June 2008. The price is currently below the upper trend line. For Phase II to end the price must not exceed the upper trend line and must close on Friday, March 5th, 2010 below the upper trend line.
QLD Monthly Phase II, 8th Trading Month: The average QLD Monthly Phase II lasts 12 months. The longest has been 16 months. So we could be 8 months or less from a major top. Currently the upper trend line price is 53.96 change of .00. So QLD price will have to fall below 53.96 and remain below that level for an entire month to start a new long term bear trend.
I currently have two QLD positions at 57.07 and 68.50.
Conclusion: Since QID daily justed started a new Phase I, it would indicated that there is more than likely more upside for QLD. However, of the 75 QID Daily Phase I Cycles, 15 of them have lasted only one trading day. Of those 15, three of them had greater than 10 trading days in Phase II. The question right now is will QLD Weekly Phase II continue? QLD will have to reach the 57.13 price level by Friday for that to happen that is .47 away. QLD Monthly Phase II will remain for atleast another month and the same holds true for QID Monthly Phase I. So for the next month no change in the long term trend is indicated. The next buy for QID at this point will be when it hits the 4th cycle low which would more than likely be a new 52 week low.
JMHO, Lindy
"Buy low, Sell high, stay with your system. If your system breaks fix it."
