QID/QLD Cycle Update Report #6 (Northam43-WAVES)
All in bold is what has changed from last report.
QID current cycles:
QID Daily Phase II, 1st Trading Day: Current price is 19.67 change of -.01. Today's high was 20.36. The lower trend line current price is 19.75 change of -.03. 5th low of this cycle is at 19.31 change of .00. Average lows per daily cycle is 4.51. The current upper trend line price is 20.32 change of .00. Current price is now below the lower trend line. The average QID Daily Phase I cycle is 7 trading days. Today QID Daily went into Phase II, then dropped below the lower trend line. QID 19.47 position was sold at 20.35. Tomorrow it will more than likely start a new Phase I cycle.
QID Weekly Phase I, 2nd Trading Week: Current price is at the lower trend line price of 19.67 change of +.01. The current cycle low remains at 19.31. The average QID weekly Phase I cycle lasts 14 weeks. The last time Phase I lasted two weeks was December 3, 2007. The current upper trend line price is 20.97 change of +.01.
QID Monthly Phase I, 11th Trading Month: The current price is below the lower trend line price of 25.29 change of .00. The upper trend line price is 31.72 change of .00. The average QID Monthly Phase I cycle lasts 9 months. The longest was 17 months from August 2006 to December 2007. So we could be 6 months or less from a QID long term bottom.
I currently have 5 QID positions at 28.57, 31.90, 32.92, 34.12, and 35.75.
QLD current cycles:
QLD Daily Phase II, 9th Trading Day: Current price is 56.15 change of +.07. Cycle high is at 57.20 change of .00. Todays high was 56.28 change of -.23. The average QLD Daily Phase II lasts 7 trading days. The last time QLD Daily Phase II had more than 9 trading days was January 11, 2010. The upper trend line price is 55.99 change of +.06. Current price is above the upper trend line.
QLD Weekly Phase II, 2nd Trading Week: The average QLD Weekly Phase II lasts 10 weeks. The current QLD Weekly cycle high is 57.20 change of .00. The upper trend line price is 57.13 change of .00. The lower trend line price is 53.54. The shortest Phase II period has been 2 weeks, they occured Jan & Feb 2007. The price is currently below the upper trend line.
QLD Monthly Phase II, 8th Trading Month: The average QLD Monthly Phase II lasts 12 months. The longest has been 16 months. So we could be 8 months or less from a major top. Currently the upper trend line price is 53.96 change of .00. So QLD price will have to fall below 53.96 and remain below that level for an entire month to start a new long term bear trend.
I currently have two QLD positions at 57.07 and 68.50.
Conclusion: Today we seen QID Daily Phase I go into Phase II and then drop below the lower trend line. What a swing. It worked out well with a sell of the QID 19.47 position. The QLD Daily closed above the upper trend line. So at this point it looks like QLD Daily Phase II will continue. However, QLD Weekly Phase II price is still below the upper trend line, however since QLD Daily is in Phase II it's possible we may see new highs of this cycle. What will tomorrow bring. Hopefully it will clear up the ST & MT direction of the market.
JMHO, Lindy
"Buy low, Sell high, stay with your system. If your system breaks fix it."
