QID/QLD Cycle Update Report #8 (Northam43-WAVES)
All in bold is what has changed from last report.
QID current cycles:
QID Daily Phase I, 2nd Trading Day: Current price is 18.98 change of -.50. Today's high was 19.38 change of -.48. The lower trend line price is 19.57 change of -.13. 2nd low of this cycle is at 18.90 change of -.56. Average lows per daily cycle is 4.48. The current upper trend line price is 20.10 change of -.15. Current price is below the lower trend line. The average QID Daily Phase I cycle is 7 trading days.
QID Weekly Phase I, 3rd Trading Week: Current price is below the lower trend line price of 19.53 change of -.13. The current cycle low is at 18.90 change of -.41. The average QID weekly Phase I cycle lasts 14 weeks. The last time Phase I lasted three weeks was August 11, 2008. The current upper trend line price is 20.71 change of -.26.
QID Monthly Phase I, 12th Trading Month: The current price is below the lower trend line price of 24.22 change of -1.07. The upper trend line price is 29.66 change of -2.06. The average QID Monthly Phase I cycle lasts 9 months. The longest was 17 months from August 2006 to December 2007. So we could be 5 months or less from a QID long term bottom.
I currently have 5 QID positions at 28.57, 31.90, 32.92, 34.12, and 35.75.
QLD current cycles:
QLD Daily Phase II, 11th Trading Day: Current price is 58.12 change of +1.46. Cycle high is at 58.29 change of +1.09. Todays high was 58.29 change of +1.61. The average QLD Daily Phase II lasts 7 trading days. The last time QLD Daily Phase II had more than 11 trading days was January 11, 2010. The upper trend line price is 56.47 change of +.36. Current price is above the upper trend line.
QLD Weekly Phase II, 3rd Trading Week: The average QLD Weekly Phase II lasts 11 weeks. The current QLD Weekly cycle high is 58.29 change of +1.09. The upper trend line price is 57.32 change of +.19. The lower trend line price is 54.10 a change of +.56. The last time Phase II lasted 3 weeks, was November 2007 & June 2008. The price is currently above the upper trend line.
QLD Monthly Phase II, 9th Trading Month: The average QLD Monthly Phase II lasts 13 months. The longest has been 16 months. So we could be 7 months or less from a major top. Currently the upper trend line price is 54.68 change of +.72. QLD price will have to fall below 54.68 and remain below that level for an entire month to start a new long term bear trend (at this point it would have to be two months).
I currently have two QLD positions at 57.07 and 68.50.
Conclusion: Since QID daily Phase I has just completed it's 2nd trading day and the average Phase I cycle normally lasts about 7 trading days, I would assume that there maybe more upside for QLD. QLD Daily Phase II is now passed it's norm, but no where near a record. QLD Weekly Phase II will continue for atleast another week as it is currently above the upper trend line price level. I will continue to hold my QLD positions. The next possible buy for QID at this point will be when it hits the 4th cycle low which would more than likely be a new 52 week low.
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