Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[Zeev Hed]

I have discussed most of these questions for quite some time, but I'll try again:

1) Who are 'the powers that be'?

I don't really know, a "hidden" hand, be it the Feds, the large banks the brokerage houses, etc.

2) What are their 'good reasons'?

A sudden readjustment (a crash) will create social unrest as a result of economic calamities and cut out of the average growth in real standard standard of living world wide, it could even create unnecessary armed confrontations.

3) What do you mean by 'the standard'?

Around 12-4 PE for SP depending on the then prevailing interest rates and inflation. Wit a sure excursion to extreme values (or undervaluation).

4. Answered.
5. Yes, but excursions above the neck will occur, at least temporarily, and that "temp" could be even a quarter or two.

6. No.

7. The market discounts it does not look in the rear view mirror. The "Nassacre" as explained in the Dec 29 forecast was to discount a second dip, that is done, now the market will try and see what is beyond a possible weak Christmas. By the time it sees pinkish YOY comparisons for next year and anticipates these (at higher prices), it will start and contemplate the need to rebuild balance sheets for both the consumer and corporate America, with another bear leg in the major Secular market suggested in my April 20th 2000 post on SI.

Zeev